Rolling The Dice With Wieters

With the Orioles long streak of sub-500 teams and fourth places finishes, they've afforded themselves some prime real estate for baseball's amateur draft. They have had top 10 picks in five of the last six drafts and were set to have another one this year. Now, baseball drafts are bigger crapshoots than basketball and football because they are rarely ready to play in the big leagues right away and the time needed for development could either uncover deficiencies in the original scouting report or incur injuries that derail a once-promising career. There are countless stories of the guy who couldn't make the transition from aluminum to wood bats (another wrinkle that the other drafts don't see--the equipment is fundamentally different) or the pitcher who was overused in college and never recovered. The Orioles litany of failed #1 picks is frustrating, to say the least. Since Jeff Hammonds in 1992 (who never really achieved his potential due to injuries, though he did have a decent career), the Orioles have had some doozies. If it weren't for Adam Loewen, Nick Markakis, and Brian Roberts (a low sandwich pick), it would be even more depressing. Can you recognize any of these names: Alvie Shepard, Rick Elder, Mike Paradis, Richard Stahl, Beau Hale, Chris Smith, or Wade Townshend? None of them ever saw the majors (though Hale still has an outside shot and Towshend, who didn't sign with the O's and went to Tampa Bay the year after, is working his way back after injuries). In the case of Darnell McDonald and Keith Reed, it was little more than cups of coffees in the majors. Yeah, I'd say the draft hasn't done nearly as much to help the Orioles as they (or anyone) would like. Not a worthy follow-up to a three-year stretch where they drafted Gregg Olson, Ben McDonald, and Mike Mussina. Now THERE'S a set of franchise-changers.


With this year's class, there has been more attention paid to it than ever. ESPN decided to broadcast it to give it similar treatment to the other sport's drafts. Meanwhile, Scott Boras (who made his name when he dueled with the Orioles over Ben McDonald 18 years ago) had a ton of prospects in his fold and with the high price tags on his players, the draft order would have as much to do with economics as talent. Everyone assumed the Orioles had some sort of bias against Boras and wouldn't pick a Boras client, which would've been unfortunate. You see, the Orioles clearly need more high-ceiling position players in the farm system (quick quiz--name a position player in AA or higher that anyone should be really excited. With the possible exception of an injured Nolan Reimold, the cupboard is bare). Finding a college position player that could rise quickly would make all the difference in the world. According to many experts, the top player in the draft was a college catcher named Matt Wieters from Georgia Tech. And, as luck would have it, he would probably still be around when the Orioles picked at #5. But as a Boras client, no one thought the O's would take the financial gamble.

Well, this afternoon, the Orioles threw the dice.


Days after Jim Duquette sat down with Scott Boras at the Angels-Orioles game, the Orioles picked Boras-client Matt Wieters and the Orioles have anointed their catcher of the future. Rocket arm, switch-hitter, hits for power, hits for average, good baseball acumen, good pedigree (previous Georgia Tech first round picks include Jason Varitek, Mark Texiera, and Jay Payton), and he is probably ready for the bigs in 2009 (the last year of Ramon Hernandez's contract). I had an audible reaction similar to when the Titans drafted Vince Young (I'm a big Titan fan). This was the right pick. The Orioles have already drafted high school players in the last two drafts and drafting a college pitcher would've been nice, but then they might as well have drafted Tim Lincecum last year. Bottom line is that there is plenty of pitching in the Orioles farm system and, while you can never have too much pitching, you also can't win if you don't score any runs. While Billy Roweel and Brandon Snyder will hopefully come along and produce in a couple of years themselves, it's really to pick someone a little closer and hope for something similar to what Nick Markakis brings to the current team: a young talent that could be a cornerstone of the Oriole offense. I feel pretty good about the rotation for the next few years. There are too many options to not believe 3-4 will pan out (from Cabrera, Bedard, Guthrie, Loewen, Penn, Olson, and eventually Erbe and Beato). Augment that with some veteran help (Kris Benson-type) and there's no room for anyone else. Meanwhile, Chris Ray WILL find his stuff and Jim Hoey is showing all the signs of being a potential legit set-up man. Add Brian Burres to the mix once he isn't needed in the starting rotation and the pitching talent is there for a winner. But positionally? I love B-Rob & Tejada and Nick is the real deal, but this pales in comparison to the Yankee & Red Sox lineup. OK, they spend a lot more, but it's possible to make yourself an inimidating lineup through the draft (look at the Blue Jays--Wells and Rios are awfully good and the Blue Jays got them throughthe draft). So, I am really happy with the Wieters pick, though ideally, he signs early to play a little this year and gets his feet wet with pro ball. Will Wieters sign early enough or at all? I don't know. That part, we'll have to wait and see. And the compensation, in case he doesn't sign, is better than it has been in years past, so it really feels like a gamble worth taking. It shows a commitment to win that is far cheaper than Carlos Lee would've been last year and could reap greater rewards.

Welcome aboard Matt. Hope to see you soon. Heck, sign fast enough and maybe I'll visit you in Aberdeen--that'd convince me to visit Ripken Stadium...