Sunday, May 13, 2007

Bloody sock? Probably. Bloody Oriole bullpen? Definitely.

Wow. Going into the weekend, I think it was clear that this could end up being a painful weekend. But no one could've predicted how that pain would come. After winning the opener and sacraficing Game 2 due to a sloppy use of the bullpen, the Orioles looked overmatched on paper when Josh Beckett and his seven straight wins came up against Jeremy Guthrie and his one straight win. Beckett has been the league's best pitcher to this point and it didn't help that they were playing this one in Fenway. But when the O's snagged two runs in the first, anything was possible. And when Guthrie set them down efficiently and in order in the bottom of the first, you couldn't help but get a little intrigued. For 8.5 innings, the Orioles looked like the better team. The Red Sox were playing sloppy -- commiting errors, walking batters, and misplaying balls. The Orioles were playing solid defense and Jeremy Guthrie put on a clinic. Honestly, I don't know that last time I saw a pitcher do a number like that. As good as Bedard and D-Cab can get, there was something about how effortless Guthrie's effort was that made you think "this guy could really be something". You kept expecting it to fail, but he refused. He gave up three hits, including a wind-blown double that should've been a fly out. In fact, Guthrie did a major part to make it a homerless weekend for the Red Sox (the O's didn't hit one either) and went through 8 innings. Well, I'm not going to go through the gory details of the ninth. In fact, I'm trying hard enough to forget them. They're so amazingly impossible to believe that I am convincing myself it was just a mirage. This I know:
  • Yes, hindsight is 20/20, but you have the opportunity to reward a pitcher for setting a great example by letting him go after the shutout when there's a five-run lead. It's one thing if he had thrown 120 pitchets, but HE WAS AT 91!!! What was the harm in giving him two more batters?!? Even if Baez closes it out quietly, I'd be asking this question--just not as angry.
  • Ramon, you took your eye off the ball. And frankly, that shouldn't have been yours anyway. Everyone knows it's easier to come in on the ball than go out. Let Guthrie catch it--he had done everything else right today.
  • Danys Baez just got hit. It's unfortunate, but it happens. Go get 'em tomorrow.
  • Chris Ray blew it long before he dropped Millar's throw. How do you walk Drew? His run was meaningless. You could've tossed it over the plate like a softball and that would've been fine. I don't care if you didn't have your best stuff--you need to be able to throw a strike. Even the Youkilis walk was a little more acceptable as you don't want to make a mistake. BUT STILL!!! I think with Youkilis, Varitek, Cora, and Lugo, Ray was so worried about giving up a HR that he didn't pitch fearlessly.
  • Millar's throw was behind Ray as opposed to leading Ray. C'mon guys--we're not even two months out of spring training. That should be fresh.

So, the Orioles are back to two games under 500 and head to Canada to face a Blue Jay team that is reeling from injuries to critical players Roy Halladay and BJ Ryan. The Orioles played them well in Baltimore, but how will they react to Sunday's meltdown. Everyone wondered why they invested in the bullpen--well, it was so this doesn't happen. Admittedly, even the best bullpens suffer from this, but when all is said and done, these games are exceptions. Given the Saturday afternoon at Yankee Stadium and now this, the Baez/Ray combo has twice surrendered five-run leads in the 8th inning or later--and against the primary division rivals, no less. How different is this season if you win those games? A three-game sweep at Yankee Stadium and winning 2 of 3 at Fenway? 18-16? I'm not asking for Baez or Ray to be perfect (they've both had other failings), but they need to close these out. Like I said, Baez just got beat and he's gotta do better. Ray needs to get it together mentally. This is where some closers just completely break down. We'll see if Ray can get back on that horse. Meanwhile, a few other things to consider about the ramifications of this game:

  • If Perlozzo makes another bone-headed decision like that and clubhouse dissension starts rearing its evil head, what's his fate? Does he make it through the season? Before Mazzili, no Angelos manager was ever canned mid-season. But Sammy isn't doing himself any favors.
  • If the travesty didn't occur in the ninth, I'd have spent most of this entry talking about Jeremy Guthrie. I was re-reading Moneyball recently and saw how Billy Beane (Oakland GM) was saying that Guthrie was the best pitching prospect in the 2002 draft (a first round that included Scott Kazmir, Jeff Francis, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, and Adam Loewen--among others). I remember being excited about the O's snagging him off the waiver wire because I was hoping for a diamond in the rough. Well, if today is any indication, WOW. Leo Mazzone hasn't had a reclamation project success in Baltimore yet, but Guthrie is putting people on notice that he wants to be the first. I'm actually excited about his next start. He's fun to watch pitch. He hits numbers on the radar gun usually reserved for Cabrera. He throws strikes. He just looks like he knows what he's doing out there. The last time the O's had a talented pitcher from Stanford out there on the mound, he won 160 games over 9.5 seasons and then left for the Yankees. Unlike Moose, there are no expectations for young Guthrie (except for this writer's increasing hopes) and anything he does this year is a bonus.
  • A loss is a loss. Saturday's meltdown was less painful, but costs the same. At two games under, the Orioles are still in 2nd place (whatever that is worth) and the season isn't over yet. Getting Scott Williamson back could be a nice boost for the pen if he's healthy.
  • The Orioles don't play the Red Sox again for two-and-a-half months! Wow, weird scheduling. That should be just enough time to get the stink off. Of course at that time, they will play the Sox 13 times in 6 weeks. Let's hope there's no jinx left at that point, or it will be an annoying August.
  • 6 out of the next 9 are against the Blue Jays while Roy Halladay recovers from an appendectomy. An already cold Blue Jay team will either be ripe for the picking or come out swinging. I'll guess the latter, but the Orioles have no excuses if they can't at least break even on these games against a team they've traditionally struggled against.
  • Do you start Trachsel on three days rest on Thursday to skip Burres' next start since Trachsel didn't go deep in Boston and Burres was the erstwhile 5th starter (which could help provide a long man in the pen). Or do you keep Burres on a regular mental routine of being a starter?
  • Interleague play starts Friday. Pitchers, start your BP.

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