Monday, April 16, 2007

The Royal Elixir

For the Baltimore Orioles, the weekend visit by the Kansas City Royals was certainly an April elixir. Coming off a Detroit series where the Oriole bats disappeared, you knew that this lineup was too good to continue to fail. But with the first game against the Royals, it was easy to be concerned. When the Orioles couldn't bust through against Gil Meche, I had visions of a LOOONG year of 5-2 losses. But two important things happened--the Orioles outlasted the Royals and (more importantly) the pitching staff never gave in.

If it's true that good pitching beats good hitting, then you are going to have series like the Detroit series where you face some really talented guys like Robertson and Verlander. If you can't match their zeroes to a certain degree, you're toast. It's been a combo of strong starting pitching (which hasn't given up more than 3 earned runs in the last nine games) and a bullpen that has really stepped up their game since the Yankee series. They didn't give up a run against the Royals and only gave up one in the Tiger series until the grand slam (when they were scraping the bottom of the pen). Perlozzo has been able to change pitchers at will. In fact, he has taken the Doritos approach to managing relievers ("don't worry, we'll make more"). In the marathon with the Tigers, he may have overused that capability. He'll have to learn how to use the bullpen more effectively and recognize that these guys won't break by going two innings--especially Bradford and Williamson. In April, those decisions are OK. Perlozzo is learning to use his bullpen differently this year. If it's still happening in May, then we call for his head. A lot has been made of the Orioles investing so much in the bullpen, but as they continue to succeed and hold the line, they will justify their investment as the confidence has to increase for the Oriloes as they go into the last innings of a game tied or up/down by a run. Last year, if the Orioles didn't put their opponent away by the seventh, it didn't look good. That's not the case any more.

At the 12 game mark, the team ERA is well below 4.00 despite these game-winning grand slams and facing three playoff teams in four series. It's early, but all indications are that Oriole pitching may be for real this year. Watching the young trio (Bedard, Cabrera, Loewen) manage to battle through games without their best stuff is a testament to the work that Mazzone has done with them. I don't know if it's mental or mechanical, but they're not making the mistakes of the past. Bedard bounced back beautifully after the brutal first inning in New York and then withstood the fact that he had no fastball against the Royals and now has two wins. Loewen struggled in both starts, but managed to shutout the Tigers through five after getting the win against the Yankees. He needs to keep the pitch count lower to go deeper in the games, but his "bend, but don't break" success this year bodes well as he continues throughout the year and his confidence grows. And as for Cabrera, five walks in three starts is big. I still expect him to have days where he walks five in seven innings, but even on bad days, his stuff is too good. He just can't go off the mental deep end when he makes a mistake. That's been his problem in the past and getting over that will make him a bonafide major league pitcher and open the door to stardom.

Did anyone notice anything interesting in the last six games? Only one HR allowed by a team that gave up more than anyone else last year. And even that HR took thirteen innings. This team is clearly listening to Mazzone. In fact, the streak goes back to the first inning of the Sunday afternoon game against the Yankees where A-Rod hit his second in two ABs. That's 67 innings and ~250 batters.

Going back to the lineup, Huff and Gibbons are notoriously slow starters, so it's easy to imagine this lineup being much better in July than it is now. Seeing Brian Roberts is a huge lift for this team as the Orioles cannot win with Brian Roberts hitting .200. It was good to see Chris Gomez with the grand slam--good teams find unlikely heroes and he's probably the last person you'd expect to come through like that (as opposed to Markakis the night before in what was clearly the best at-bat of the season--11 pitches before his grand slam). But at the end of the day, if the pitching continues, this could be a great season.

For now, we'll take it one day at a time. Given the way the season started in Minnesota, it's nice to be back to .500 ball. Now, the Orioles go on the road to face the Devil Rays. They are usually tough at home, so this won't be easy. With the Rays lineup, we'll find out if good pitching really does beat good hitting and how good Oriole pitching really is.

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