Hope Springs Eternal

If you’re not first, you’re last” - Ricky Bobby, Talladega Nights

Well, if there’s one team that can prove Ricky Bobby wrong, it’s the Baltimore Orioles. For the last nine years, there are few teams that have shown more consistency in being neither first nor last. In fact, for eight of those years, they have been in fourth place. The entire AL East has pretty much maintained a constant set of standings (Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Devil Rays) for that entire stretch. The Orioles are a relatively big-market team with a small market team’s payroll playing in a division with a big-market teams with HUGE market payrolls. They play in the division with the two financial powerhouses and they are often dismissed before the year even starts. Their ability to avoid falling to last place reduces the ridicule that could be heaped on a team with such constant inadequacy, but it’s been a very long time since anyone believed they could challenge for the division and no one expects that to change any time soon.

When you think about it, the consistency is quite remarkable. They’ve been through Cal Ripken’s retirement, Albert Belle’s hip, Rafael Palmeiro’s steroid controversy, Sammy Sosa’s foot, and Sidney Ponson’s…well…Sidney Ponson. They’ve seen big flops (Calvin Pickering) and really huge flops (Matt Riley). They’ve watched four straight top picks not make the majors (1998-2001). They’ve had four managers, five GMs (including two at the same time), though only one owner (topic for a different day). They’ve even been spurned by free agents to the point that they joked that they must’ve been offering “confederate money” (I didn’t laugh).

So why bother watching? Why do I even get optimistic when April rolls around? Why do I spend my hard-earned money and valuable summer nights watching the inevitable? Is it in human nature that we think things can change? Einstein one said the definition of insanity is “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result”. So the question is: are those such as myself who hold out hope insane? The Red Sox strengthened their already solid rotation with “Dice-K” while the Yankees brought back Andy Pettite, who has nearly twice as many wins against the Orioles than any other team–despite spending the last three years in the NL. The Orioles? They got Yankees castoff Jaret Wright and Met castoff Steve Trachsel. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays picked up Frank Thomas to solidify a lineup that already ranks among the toughest in the majors. The Orioles? After never getting in the running for Alfonso Soriano and losing out on the Carlos Lee sweepstakes, they signed consolation prize AUbrey Huff and some outfield depth with Jay Payton. Solid players, but neither radically changes this team. So, is this team doomed to fourth place yet again? Maybe.

My hope is that someday, this blog’s title becomes “First Place Birds”. And while I am not counting on it yet, I do think there are reasons to watch. I live and die with these guys and it’s been a long road. So why am I not insane? Simple–I think there’s an easy formula to be taken seriously. Now maybe I am drunk with April’s annual optimism, but I say that all the Orioles have to do is play even with the Yankees, Red Sox, Jays, and the NL, and keep doing what you do against the rest of the league. Take the Red Sox last year. Against the NL and one another, the Red Sox were 20+ games better. Against the other 12 AL teams, the Orioles pretty much even! Were the Red Sox so much better that they should win that many games head-to-head? No, they weren’t and they’re not this year either.

Yes, the division is intimidating, but less so than in year’s past. That’s the Red Sox, who, despite the injuries, were still able to reap the benefits of surprises Papelbon and Lowell. Nomar is long gone. Varitek is on the downside. They have a revolving door at short. Lowell and Youkilis had mediocre second halves that don’t bode well for 2007. This isn’t a bad team, but other than Ortiz and Manny, there’s no one in the lineup that makes you quake in your boots–though I wouldn’t count JD Drew out yet. If Beckett rebounds, that’ll give them a great rotation and they’ll be dangerous. But if he struggles and Schilling and Wakefield start to show their age, then even the rotation is questionable. And while the Yankee lineup is as imposing as they get, you win in baseball with pitching and the Yankees haven’t had it since the last time they were in the World Series (Mussina, Clemens, Wells, and Pettite–all four years younger). The Yankees cupboard isn’t extremely bare as they potentially have an up-and-comer in Wang, two outstanding starters in Mussina and Pettite when they’re healthy (and each year, that becomes less dependable) and then they’re leaving it to chance with Igawa and Pavano. With Igawa, we’ve seen Japanese players flourish (Matsui) and suffer (Irabu) in Yankee Stadium. The pressure of Dice-K over in Boston could be a lot to ask of Igawa. Sure, that’s not fair, but have you seen New York fans? Don’t get me wrong–I don’t expect the Orioles to necessarily pass the Red Sox or Yankees, but with head-to-head matchups being far less intimidating than they were in years past, there’s reason for at least a little more optimism.

Of course, the fear is that this blog will need to be called “Fifth Place Birds” because the Devil Rays have stockpiled so much talent that it’s hard to think they’ll be held down forever. With Upton, Young, and Dukes, that’s a nucleus that has plenty of time to establish themselves and make something of the organization before they get stockpiles of cash from the Yankees and Red Sox when they’re ready for free agency in 5-6 years.

In the end, as good or bad as the rest of the teams are, the Orioles need to look at themselves if they want to contend. People say they can’t contend in the AL East with the teams that are there, but you can’t contend if you can’t even play 500 ball. Given the way they are handing out contracts, it’s clear that the Orioles have a three-year plan. Tejada, Mora, Roberts, Bedard, Cabrera, and several other Orioles are eligible for free agency after 2009. So my guess is the front office will give this nucleus three years before cleaning house and going another direction. With that said, 80-85 wins would be a good goal this year. Is it doable? Hard to say. The talent on this pitching staff is much higher than most baseball writers are aware of. Bedard is a legitimate ace, Cabrera has the talent to be as dominating as Randy Johnson, and Adam Loewen has always had excellent stuff and has to be the most improved pitcher over the last 18 months. With castoffs Wright and Trachsel at the back of the rotation, it’s hard to know what’s ahead. But I do think there was addition by subtraction when you send off Lopez and Chen. Lopez may do very well in the NL, but clearly needed a change of scenery and an attitude adjustment. Meanwhile, with Hayden Penn and Garett Olson down in the minors, we could see a full youth movement by the end of the year and really learn a lot about the future of this team.

For as bad as some of the starters were last year, the bullpen was downright frustrating. No Oriole lead was safe, expect maybe in the 9th innning with Chris Ray. And at one point, Ray was getting overused as Sam Perlozzo had no one else he could trust in the 8th. The Orioles dropped a lot of money into making sure that a lead in the 7th inning means a likely victory. They picked up a closer-quality reliever to work the 8th (as well as provide closer depth), picked up a situation lefty to face the Giambis and Ortizes of the world. How different is this bullpen? The only person on the eight-man bullpen who was on last year’s opening day roster is Chris Ray. And the only other pitcher throw an inning for the O’s was Brian Burres, a September call-up. If the results continue, then it must be a wardrobe problem because the only thing this pen has in common with 2006 are the uniforms. I think the bullpen alone can make a 5-10 game difference for this team. It’s not only about the blown leads, but also the tempation to keep the starters in longer and the confidence the team has in their leads.

The offense? Well, it still lacks a big bopper. Where the Yankees have A-Rod, Giambi, and many others ready to take you downtown, there’s no huge power plant in the Orioles lineup. Aubrey Huff was a great pickup if only because he is capable of 25 HRs–something that no Oriole did in 2006. But picking up Soriano or Lee would’ve been great. They were severely overpaid and the Orioles were right to back off, but the Orioles still need someone to strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers. That said, I think you’ll see a lot more power all up in 2007. Brian Roberts is healthy and could be good for 15-20 (he hit 11 in the second half of last year). Jay Gibbons can stay healthy, he should hit 20-25. Nick Markakis continualyl improved his power stroke and can also end up in the 20-25 range if he can avoid the sophomore jinx. Only Ramon Hernandez overachieved in 2006. I think the X-Factor in this lineup is Melvin Mora. It was a very disappointing year for Melvin and so far removed from his breakout 2004 season. While he’ll never repeat those #s, I think the Orioles would like to see his 2005 #s come back. If they do, the top of this lineup is potent. Defensively, this team is underrated. While whoever the leftfielder is represents a liability, the Orioles are as strong as they get with Patterson and Markakis in center and right. Hernandez and Roberts are among the best at their position, Tejada showed a lot of life at SS last season, and Melvin Mora is underrated at 3rd.

So, can this team win 80 games? I think there are six key questions:

-Will Bedard win 17-20?
-Will Cabrera and Loewen win 25-30 games this year?
-Will the bullpen hold on to 80-90% of those 7th inning leads?
-Will the O’s have at least 3 players hit 25 HRs?
-Will one of the youngsters assert themselves intot he rotation and hold their own but year’s end (Olson or Penn)?
-Will Melvin Mora return to pre-2006 offensive form?

Asking for six things to come through is pretty optimistic, but 4-5 of these things happen and the rest of the team stays relative healthy, I think the Orioles can win 80-85 games–and be in a position to contend in 2008. And who knows, maybe I’ll need to rename this blog. Until then, I’ll be sharing my thoughts and watching the soap opera–as I’ve done all these years with my Fourth Place Birds.