The Truth About Good Teams and Bad

The difference between good teams and bad teams goes beyond talent. There are teams with worlds of talent that simply underachieve. Then, there are teams that play over their heads and contend when it seems like they have no business doing so. The 1998 Orioles had several future hall of famers (Ripken, Alomar, pre-steroid Palmeiro, Mussina) as well as a series of All-Stars (Jimmy Key, Scott Erickson, Brady Anderson) and they finished around 30 games out of first place. Meanwhile, the 1989 Orioles had no one (Ripken in the midst of an off-year) and came one weekend away from winning the AL East. What was the difference? The 1989 Orioles won the games they should have and a bunch that they shouldn't have. The 1998 managed to lose a bunch of games they had no business losing and didn't win enough that they should have. Games like the Mother's Day Massacre are games the Orioles should have won easily and didn't. Of course, it happens to every team. But when it becomes a habit, that's when there's a problem. It was a habit for the 1998 Orioles. And the 1999 Orioles. And the 2000 Orioles. And by then, all the talent left. This year, the talent looked like it might be there for a decent team. Well, starting with the massacre, it is clear the habit returned and this Sunday was the worst offender of all.

For the second straight week, the Orioles were SOOO close to having a weekend to be proud of. After all, a pair of one-run victories on the road set them up for their fourth sweep of the year and first on the road. With Bedard against Micah Bowie, things were definitely looking up. And through seven-and-a-half, things were definitely looking along those lines. Despite the Orioles inability to get a clutch hit (again!), they got plenty of pitching from Bedard and were in the home stretch of the sweep. Hey, this game was looking like a testament to the importance of starting pitching. In the end, it was a testament to the importance of smart managerial decisions.

OK, Sam Perlozzo has taken a tremendous amount of criticism and I hate to join the bandwagon here. But the moves on Sunday were so egregious that to not address them would be to ignore an obvious issue. Let's get one thing clear: pulling Bedard was the right move. I remember getting a little nervous when he was running the bases. Who knows what that takes out of a pitcher that isn't used to it. If Bedard said he's ready to come out, you have to respect it. We all use pitch count to determine fatigue, but there's a lot more than that and, at the end of the day, it's more useful to force someone to come out (like Loewen, who never gets tired) than to force someone to stay in. Plus, you get to pinch-hit for him with a runner on third and two outs in the top of the 8th. Before we get to the pitching, I do want to bring in something there. Corey Patterson is struggling mightily. Even Perlozzo admits he needs to work his way out of it, maybe with a couple of bunt hits or something. So why pinch-hit with him in that situation. I know the lefty-righty thing, but you have Millar waiting for a turn and he's one of the better clutch hitters on the Orioles--and he's not struggling like Patterson. C'mon, Sammy, recognize the trends.

Speaking of recognizing the trends, I was actually pleased to see Bradford in the 8th. I figured this was an opportunity to let Baez work things out while the more dependable relievers hold down the fort when it comes to setup work. But after a one-out double, here comes Baez--to face the lefty! the only thing I can make of it is that Perlozzo wanted to show he has confidence in Baez. C'mon Sammy--he's struggling. Keeping him on the roster is showing faith in him. He'll work things out, but he dangerous right now. Didn't you see him pump his fists after the final out of the 8th inning of Friday's game? He's lost faith in his ability, whether he admits it or not. Bradford is a ground-ball pitcher, so you didn't have to worry about the long ball. Plus, he was fairly well-rested. Stick with him. Or Walker looked lights-out the night before and we spent good money for him to get out lefties. So what if they would've pinch hit with Batista. I watched that guy for three years and I can tell you that if you keep the ball out of the strike and he'll pop up or strike out. Walker knows that. He saw what Parrish did to him the day before.

But there was Baez. And you know the rest. What's especially frustrating is that you knew what was going to happen, even when they were up by two. The Orioles give away one that was rightfully theirs. Blame the clutch hitting and the pen. But where you can't get too upset if Bedard got lit up or even Bradford gives up a HR because you need to trust your bullpen. But Sammy, you also have to gauge when your players are stuggling and adapt your team accordingly. This isn't XBox where players perform based strictly on their statistics. There are trends and Baez & Patterson are in a major slumps. Putting the game in the hands of someone in a slump? With the possible exception of a closer (where the role is so specialized), you don't do that when you have alternatives.

The Orioles are the same record they were at last year. This year's team has been underperforming offensive and in the pen and the manager keeps pushing the wrong buttons, but they are hanging on by a thread. They're not out of it and there's a clear opportunity to still contend if they can keep up the starting pitching and the pen & lineup play to their potential. But if they keep giving away games, it'll be over by July. Again.