Channeling Costanza

Man, there are bad weeks, but this one takes the cake. It reminds me of the Seinfeld episode where George Costanza did the exact opposite of everything he normally did. For George, it worked well. For the Orioles, it turned a winning team into a losing team. The Orioles failed in the clutch. They made boneheaded plays. The bullpen failed at inopportune times. Despite relatively solid starting pitching (save for Bedard's first start and Wright's not-so-triumphant return), they lost 6 of 7. They blew the comeback against the A's thanks to a series of brain freezes. Did the same in Game 2 in big spots. And then the bullpen failed the starters against the Sox--on a couple of bloops in the first game and one big blast in the second. By the time Jeremy Guthrie was surrendering an inside-the-parker to Grady Sizemore, you just knew the Orioles were going through a rough stretch. Now, they are off to Comerica to face the Tigers. The real Orioles need to come back out and assert themselves (unless this week is the REAL team, in which case, we have a LONG five months ahead). They need to pick up the power production (1 garbage-time HR this weekend), get the bullpen back, and start believing in themselves. Saturday was exactly what the Orioles need to do to win. Solid starting pitching. Great work by the bullpen. Clutch hits by Patterson and Hernandez. Baez and Ray shutting the door. With the Yankees suffering, it's hard to enjoy when the Orioles struggle as well. Win on Monday and they finish 500 for the month--acceptable given the roller coaster that we've endured...

Bird-Brained Mental Lapses

Ouch. the A's series was one of those that you just want to forget. The Orioles would act like the same Orioles that swept the Blue Jays, and then fall victim to mental mistakes on par with a little league team. The bizarre ninth inning in Monday's game, complete with Corey Patterson not scoring on the single and the Melvin Mora bunt, is one of those things that you worry would affect the mood of the team (which has been so feel-good to this point). It seemed like it would be important to see if the team could bounce back and Tuesday was NOT what the team needed. On the plus side, the fact that the ninth inning even occurred is a great sign. The team does not quit, even against a premiere closer like Huston Street. But with the Red Sox ahead and their 2006 hex still fresh in everyone's memories, this has gotta stop and fast.

Another 11-7 Start

At the beginning of the season, I said a big component of any success would be the Orioles ability to at least play 500 ball against the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Red Sox. This has been a huge problem in years past and pretty much buries the birds, regardless of what happens with the rest of the league (not that their performance against the NL is ever anything to be proud of). Well, after taking two of three from the Yankees two weeks ago, there was some reason for optimism that maybe--just maybe--the Orioles could hold their own. After this past weekend, the optimism increases.

The Orioles were trailing 4-2 in the eighth inning Friday. From that point till the 9th inning Sunday, the Orioles outscored the Blue Jays 15-3. They outpitched them, outhit them, and continually came through with clutch plays. Whether it was the big hits from Markakis or Chad Bradford's ability to snuff would-be rallies and bail out the Oriole starters, they simply had the flair for doing the right thing at the right time. The Jays, admittedly shorthanded with injuries to Troy Glaus, BJ Ryan, and Reed Johnson, had no answer.

As much as we like to talk about the bullpen, the pitching staff overall continues to do exactly what it needs to--keep the team in the game and keep the ball in the park. The Orioles have given up three HRs in the last two weeks. By comparison, Yankee rookie Chase Wright gave up four HRs IN A ROW!!! In fact, in the last nine games, they have not given up a HR with a runner on base. Just two solo shots. When the opponent isn't hitting 3-run HRs, it makes it a lot easier to stay in the ball game.

Now, let's temper the enthusiasm here. If there's anything that 2005 taught us, it's to not get TOO excited about early season performance. The Orioles started both 2005 and 2006 at 11-7. But here's a difference--no one is playing over their head with the possible exception of John Parrish. The bullpen is pretty much doing what was expected of them. The starters haven't really hit their stride. Tejada only had three RBIs until Saturday. Huff and Gibbons have combined for only 1 HR. Roberts is hitting .213. There's a very good chance this team will get BETTER in the months ahead if they stay healthy. And yet here they sit as winners of 8 of 9. That's big. And even their losses since the Twins series have been close. They've lost by 1,2,2, and 4 (in extra innings). Every game has been within reach and their ability to come from behind gives them an unflappable contest.

I think Perlozzo hit the nail on the head. The Orioles are playing really well right now and they need to ride it out. The question will come when they hit adversity. How does this team handle it? This week will be one that tests the Orioles. They play the Red Sox and A's, two teams that have traditionally beat up on the Orioles in years past--particularly the Red Sox last year. What happens if they fall down? Can they get back up? That's why we watch...

Showing Some Character in Tampa

The Orioles history in Tampa Bay isn't one that has a ton of highlights. It seems that the most vivid memories involve Jorge Julio, Aubrey Huff, and balls going into orbit. There was also a near-miraculous comeback last year that failed when the Oriole bats suddenly fell silent after creeping to within 13-12. Coming off an uplifting sweep of the Royals over the weekend, it was hard to predict how the trip to Tampa would play out. It didn't help that the Rays were starting a pair of lefties, including their ace Scott Kazmir. And when the O's were down 7-1 in the opener after an inconsistent outing by Adam Loewen, you could feel the Orioles come crashing down to earth. The Devil Rays lineup has some outstanding talent on it, including several players that are being pegged for great success (Upton, Young, Dukes) or are already achieving it (Baldelli, Crawford). And they were teaching the O's a lesson. Perhaps the most demoralizing play was the three-error debacle by Aubrey Huff and Paul Bako that nearly enabled a little league HR.

But then something happened. An unlikely hero in Freddie Bynum got the comeback going with a 2-run shot. Melvin Mora, this year's key Oriole in my mind, then came through with a two-run shot of his own. Then, a rash of doubles and suddenly the game is tied. An RBI grounder to take the lead. And a HR by Huff (felt good to be on the other side of that) took it to 9-7. And the $42M bullpen didn't bend, much less break. Last year, there's no way the Orioles win this game. Yes, it's April and it's early, but these are important signs. The Orioles absorbed a horrible start from Loewen and still managed to win on the road. Wow. The next night, they nearly did it again when they were down 6-1, closed it to 6-4, and then saw a Miguel Tejada game-tying blast just curve foul. Devil Ray fans had to have that feeling of doom that Oriole fans get with the Yankees, where like a bad horror movie, the villain is never dead when you think he is. By game 3 with Bedard on the mound, you liked your chances. But Bedard struggled as well, still looking for the magic of 2006. Still, as been his MO this season, he managed with the stuff he had and kept the Orioles in this game like a true ace should. And, after trailing 3-1, the Orioles stormed back again and took the lead. And the bullpen closed the door again. And the Orioles had themselves another comeback win and road series win. After getting swept to start the season, the Orioles have crept past 500 again.

Clearly, the team MVP is the bullpen. It may be grand expectations to think this team can continue like this throughout the season, but when you have rock-solid pen, any game is within reach. Most people think that the comeback capability is spurred by an explosive offense, but it's as much about the bullpen that makes sure the comeback target isn't a moving one. For all the David Ortiz game-winning HRs over the years, there's been a Mike Timlin that keeps the Red Sox in the game. The Orioles have a solid offense (though they still lack a big bopper), but difference this year is the pen. The late inning guys (Chris Ray & Danys Baez) have been outstanding, and perhaps the best sign is how they both rebounded from that Saturday afternoon game against the Yankees with the Giambi and A-Rod HRs. In both of their cases, that game was the only run that they've been scored upon and they seemed to get BETTER after that game. Many people suggested the Orioles overpaid on Baez. But with Baez in the 8th and Ray in the 9th, you are developing what the Orioles had in 1997 (their last winning season) with Benitez in the 8th and Myers in the 9th. In 1998, Myers left, Benitez moved to the 9th and entire franchise came down as the Orioles failed in BOTH innings (no one could replace Benitez and Benitez couldn't replace Myers). The Yankees in their best years had this setup. Whether it was Rivera in the 8th and Wetteland in the 9th. Or Gordon in the 8th and Rivera in the 9th. That's what I used to call the "softball effect": when teams turn it into a 7 inning game. When the Red Sox were clicking last year, it was Timlin and Papelbon. It's demoralizing for the opponent to even think that their time is running out in the 7th. And frankly, with the success of Walker, Parrish, and Bradford, the focus really comes to the starter. To that end, John Parrish has been absolutely outstanding. You wonder if the Orioles would have even signed Walker if they had known this was going to happen with Parrish (though I am still glad they signed Walker). Keeping the guys fresh throughout the year will be important, but if this keeps up, I like my chances. And with BJ Ryan (who cost more than $42M all by himself) on the DL, the Blue Jays come to town. I miss BJ, but isn't that money looking much better spent right now?

The Royal Elixir

For the Baltimore Orioles, the weekend visit by the Kansas City Royals was certainly an April elixir. Coming off a Detroit series where the Oriole bats disappeared, you knew that this lineup was too good to continue to fail. But with the first game against the Royals, it was easy to be concerned. When the Orioles couldn't bust through against Gil Meche, I had visions of a LOOONG year of 5-2 losses. But two important things happened--the Orioles outlasted the Royals and (more importantly) the pitching staff never gave in.

If it's true that good pitching beats good hitting, then you are going to have series like the Detroit series where you face some really talented guys like Robertson and Verlander. If you can't match their zeroes to a certain degree, you're toast. It's been a combo of strong starting pitching (which hasn't given up more than 3 earned runs in the last nine games) and a bullpen that has really stepped up their game since the Yankee series. They didn't give up a run against the Royals and only gave up one in the Tiger series until the grand slam (when they were scraping the bottom of the pen). Perlozzo has been able to change pitchers at will. In fact, he has taken the Doritos approach to managing relievers ("don't worry, we'll make more"). In the marathon with the Tigers, he may have overused that capability. He'll have to learn how to use the bullpen more effectively and recognize that these guys won't break by going two innings--especially Bradford and Williamson. In April, those decisions are OK. Perlozzo is learning to use his bullpen differently this year. If it's still happening in May, then we call for his head. A lot has been made of the Orioles investing so much in the bullpen, but as they continue to succeed and hold the line, they will justify their investment as the confidence has to increase for the Oriloes as they go into the last innings of a game tied or up/down by a run. Last year, if the Orioles didn't put their opponent away by the seventh, it didn't look good. That's not the case any more.

At the 12 game mark, the team ERA is well below 4.00 despite these game-winning grand slams and facing three playoff teams in four series. It's early, but all indications are that Oriole pitching may be for real this year. Watching the young trio (Bedard, Cabrera, Loewen) manage to battle through games without their best stuff is a testament to the work that Mazzone has done with them. I don't know if it's mental or mechanical, but they're not making the mistakes of the past. Bedard bounced back beautifully after the brutal first inning in New York and then withstood the fact that he had no fastball against the Royals and now has two wins. Loewen struggled in both starts, but managed to shutout the Tigers through five after getting the win against the Yankees. He needs to keep the pitch count lower to go deeper in the games, but his "bend, but don't break" success this year bodes well as he continues throughout the year and his confidence grows. And as for Cabrera, five walks in three starts is big. I still expect him to have days where he walks five in seven innings, but even on bad days, his stuff is too good. He just can't go off the mental deep end when he makes a mistake. That's been his problem in the past and getting over that will make him a bonafide major league pitcher and open the door to stardom.

Did anyone notice anything interesting in the last six games? Only one HR allowed by a team that gave up more than anyone else last year. And even that HR took thirteen innings. This team is clearly listening to Mazzone. In fact, the streak goes back to the first inning of the Sunday afternoon game against the Yankees where A-Rod hit his second in two ABs. That's 67 innings and ~250 batters.

Going back to the lineup, Huff and Gibbons are notoriously slow starters, so it's easy to imagine this lineup being much better in July than it is now. Seeing Brian Roberts is a huge lift for this team as the Orioles cannot win with Brian Roberts hitting .200. It was good to see Chris Gomez with the grand slam--good teams find unlikely heroes and he's probably the last person you'd expect to come through like that (as opposed to Markakis the night before in what was clearly the best at-bat of the season--11 pitches before his grand slam). But at the end of the day, if the pitching continues, this could be a great season.

For now, we'll take it one day at a time. Given the way the season started in Minnesota, it's nice to be back to .500 ball. Now, the Orioles go on the road to face the Devil Rays. They are usually tough at home, so this won't be easy. With the Rays lineup, we'll find out if good pitching really does beat good hitting and how good Oriole pitching really is.

A Pitch Short of the Perfect Weekend

There are a lot of ways of looking at the Orioles series with the Yankees. On the plus side, any time you can take two of three at Yankee Stadium, you don’t ask questions. You just take it and hope you can do it again. Going back to my formula for success (break even against the Yankees, Red Sox, and NL), this is the right progress. The Orioles dominated Yankee starters and exposed what is bound to be the biggest weakness in the Bronx throughout the year. Meanwhile, all three Oriole started asserted themselves with strong efforts and each day was better than the one before. They led every game by a significant amount at one point or another and certainly established that they weren’t going to be pushovers.

Then again, there was the five minutes that could destroy a team. Two outs and none on in the 9th, holding a one run lead and Chris Ray self-destructs. Orioles closers have a knack for finding teams that are like kryptonite. Who can forget Jorge Julio and the Devil Rays or BJ Ryan and the Twins. Well, Chris Ray picked the worst team to struggle against. His numbers are horrible against the Yankees and the sequence in which Saturday’s game went down was stunning. Single, walk, HBP. Then, with A-Rod in the hole at 1-2, a fastball in his wheelhouse to send the crowd into a frenzy. For just a moment, let’s imagine what strike three would’ve done. Boos from the crowd. Tears from a the game’s highest-paid player, followed by repeated denials that he wasn’t happy in New York. Some clever headline in the New York Post like “A-Flop”. Boy, that would’ve been great. If Sunday’s game plays out, you have the Yankees at 1-4 with A-Rod a goat, and George Steinbrenner voicing his opinions (we just don’t hear from him enough any more).

So, a successful series is slighly overshadowed by what could’ve been. In addition, the bullpen is going to have to earn its stripes before we can start patting Flanagan and Duquette on the back for their off-season strategy. As much as Ray blew the save, Baez really blew the hold and did so on two walks and a Giambi HR. Perlozzo shouldn’t have to use Walker in that situations–that’s why you get a Baez! Of course, how about the gut check by the Orioles on Sunday? Coming off the excruciating defeat on Saturday and falling behind 3-0 in the first despite their ace in the mound, there are Oriole teams in the past that pretty much would’ve folded up the tent and gone home. That’s the value I think Kevin Millar brings to this team (and I wasn’t heartbroken when we had to settle for bringing him back). He keeps the guys lose, reminds them that it’s one game, and then hits a clutch 2-run HR followed by a key double to help the Orioles overcome the 3-0 defecit while Bedard regained his groove and proceeded to treat the Yankees the way they should be treated (retiring 20 of 22 with two singles as the only blemishes). The Orioles have trailed in every game and led in all but one. The ability to bounce back is important–they can never feel like they are out of a game. That’s the mark of a contender and that’s something they’ll need to continue going forward.

Next up, the Orioles finally return home to Camden Yards. It’s hard to believe that the stadium opened 15 years ago. Let’s see if Cabrera can match his solid outing from last week. Game three should be especially interesting as two young guys go at it in Verlander and Loewen.

Escape to the House that Ruth Built

It’s hard to imagine being happy to come to New York, but the Metrodome was the house of horrors for the Orioles and it’s nice to get out of there. Glancing at the schedule, the Orioles aren’t due to go to Minnesota again this year and that’ll suit the team just fine. Maybe opening the season on the road and in a dome just didn’t seem right. Maybe seeing yet another playoff team give Sidney Ponson a chance was a little too much too stomach. Whatever it was, the Orioles couldn’t pitch, couldn’t hit, and couldn’t field. There were exceptions. Aubrey Huff had a nice start to his career. Daniel Cabrera pitched pretty well and the new bullpen pretty much all came through–albeit in mostly mop-up roles. The site of Bedard giving up back-to-back home runs was tough, but that was nothing compared to the batting practice he was throwing by the end of the game. This was neither the Bedard from spring trianing nor the Bedard that gave Oriole fans hope at the end of last season that there was finally a legitimate big-game pitcher for the Orioles for the first time since Moose broke our hearts to wear pinstripes in Gotham. As for the lethargic bats, you expect that at the beginning of the season when you come up to the cold weather–but these guys were playing in a dome! The top of the order couldn’t get anything going and Kevin Millar was looking like the guy who struggled in the first half of 2006 because he wasn’t getting enough at bats. Well, if he keeps this up and Jay Payton rolls off the DL, Millar may go back to lacking at bats.

But while it’s easy to get down on the team, it is just three games with 159 to go. The Orioles have had some gaudy Aprils over this nine year stretch, only to prove to be a facade for the problems that they face as the season goes on. These three games are an anomaly. Bedard has always struggled against the Twins, the top of the lineup won’t be kept down forever, and they simply hit a speed bump against a solid team. I’m less concerned about these three games and more concerned about what’s ahead: the Yankees at Yankees Stadium followed by the Tigers at home. As the pitching staff continues to get its bearings, facing the Bronx Bombers can be a confidence killer if they tee off. Loewen did a number on the Yanks last season, but it’s hard to maintain dominance over a lineup like that and asking the 22-year old to step up doesn’t feel good–especially against Oriole legend Mike Mussina in a battle of past vs. future. With Steve Trachsel coming in on Saturday as the new guy, that also feels like a lot to pin your hopes on. If the Orioles don’t start hitting, they are in a world of hurt. You’d hate to make it to Sunday winless with the Yankees smelling blood–even though the Bedard/Rasner pitching matchup favors the Orioles. Forgive me for being paranoid, but I was there in 1988 and I listened to every one of those 21 losses. For the last 19 years, the first victory has been extremely important to calm my nerves. The schedule makers didn’t make things easy for the Orioles and if they continue to play lackadaisical baseball, they risk another crack at “Blackjack”.

Hope Springs Eternal

If you’re not first, you’re last” - Ricky Bobby, Talladega Nights

Well, if there’s one team that can prove Ricky Bobby wrong, it’s the Baltimore Orioles. For the last nine years, there are few teams that have shown more consistency in being neither first nor last. In fact, for eight of those years, they have been in fourth place. The entire AL East has pretty much maintained a constant set of standings (Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Devil Rays) for that entire stretch. The Orioles are a relatively big-market team with a small market team’s payroll playing in a division with a big-market teams with HUGE market payrolls. They play in the division with the two financial powerhouses and they are often dismissed before the year even starts. Their ability to avoid falling to last place reduces the ridicule that could be heaped on a team with such constant inadequacy, but it’s been a very long time since anyone believed they could challenge for the division and no one expects that to change any time soon.

When you think about it, the consistency is quite remarkable. They’ve been through Cal Ripken’s retirement, Albert Belle’s hip, Rafael Palmeiro’s steroid controversy, Sammy Sosa’s foot, and Sidney Ponson’s…well…Sidney Ponson. They’ve seen big flops (Calvin Pickering) and really huge flops (Matt Riley). They’ve watched four straight top picks not make the majors (1998-2001). They’ve had four managers, five GMs (including two at the same time), though only one owner (topic for a different day). They’ve even been spurned by free agents to the point that they joked that they must’ve been offering “confederate money” (I didn’t laugh).

So why bother watching? Why do I even get optimistic when April rolls around? Why do I spend my hard-earned money and valuable summer nights watching the inevitable? Is it in human nature that we think things can change? Einstein one said the definition of insanity is “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result”. So the question is: are those such as myself who hold out hope insane? The Red Sox strengthened their already solid rotation with “Dice-K” while the Yankees brought back Andy Pettite, who has nearly twice as many wins against the Orioles than any other team–despite spending the last three years in the NL. The Orioles? They got Yankees castoff Jaret Wright and Met castoff Steve Trachsel. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays picked up Frank Thomas to solidify a lineup that already ranks among the toughest in the majors. The Orioles? After never getting in the running for Alfonso Soriano and losing out on the Carlos Lee sweepstakes, they signed consolation prize AUbrey Huff and some outfield depth with Jay Payton. Solid players, but neither radically changes this team. So, is this team doomed to fourth place yet again? Maybe.

My hope is that someday, this blog’s title becomes “First Place Birds”. And while I am not counting on it yet, I do think there are reasons to watch. I live and die with these guys and it’s been a long road. So why am I not insane? Simple–I think there’s an easy formula to be taken seriously. Now maybe I am drunk with April’s annual optimism, but I say that all the Orioles have to do is play even with the Yankees, Red Sox, Jays, and the NL, and keep doing what you do against the rest of the league. Take the Red Sox last year. Against the NL and one another, the Red Sox were 20+ games better. Against the other 12 AL teams, the Orioles pretty much even! Were the Red Sox so much better that they should win that many games head-to-head? No, they weren’t and they’re not this year either.

Yes, the division is intimidating, but less so than in year’s past. That’s the Red Sox, who, despite the injuries, were still able to reap the benefits of surprises Papelbon and Lowell. Nomar is long gone. Varitek is on the downside. They have a revolving door at short. Lowell and Youkilis had mediocre second halves that don’t bode well for 2007. This isn’t a bad team, but other than Ortiz and Manny, there’s no one in the lineup that makes you quake in your boots–though I wouldn’t count JD Drew out yet. If Beckett rebounds, that’ll give them a great rotation and they’ll be dangerous. But if he struggles and Schilling and Wakefield start to show their age, then even the rotation is questionable. And while the Yankee lineup is as imposing as they get, you win in baseball with pitching and the Yankees haven’t had it since the last time they were in the World Series (Mussina, Clemens, Wells, and Pettite–all four years younger). The Yankees cupboard isn’t extremely bare as they potentially have an up-and-comer in Wang, two outstanding starters in Mussina and Pettite when they’re healthy (and each year, that becomes less dependable) and then they’re leaving it to chance with Igawa and Pavano. With Igawa, we’ve seen Japanese players flourish (Matsui) and suffer (Irabu) in Yankee Stadium. The pressure of Dice-K over in Boston could be a lot to ask of Igawa. Sure, that’s not fair, but have you seen New York fans? Don’t get me wrong–I don’t expect the Orioles to necessarily pass the Red Sox or Yankees, but with head-to-head matchups being far less intimidating than they were in years past, there’s reason for at least a little more optimism.

Of course, the fear is that this blog will need to be called “Fifth Place Birds” because the Devil Rays have stockpiled so much talent that it’s hard to think they’ll be held down forever. With Upton, Young, and Dukes, that’s a nucleus that has plenty of time to establish themselves and make something of the organization before they get stockpiles of cash from the Yankees and Red Sox when they’re ready for free agency in 5-6 years.

In the end, as good or bad as the rest of the teams are, the Orioles need to look at themselves if they want to contend. People say they can’t contend in the AL East with the teams that are there, but you can’t contend if you can’t even play 500 ball. Given the way they are handing out contracts, it’s clear that the Orioles have a three-year plan. Tejada, Mora, Roberts, Bedard, Cabrera, and several other Orioles are eligible for free agency after 2009. So my guess is the front office will give this nucleus three years before cleaning house and going another direction. With that said, 80-85 wins would be a good goal this year. Is it doable? Hard to say. The talent on this pitching staff is much higher than most baseball writers are aware of. Bedard is a legitimate ace, Cabrera has the talent to be as dominating as Randy Johnson, and Adam Loewen has always had excellent stuff and has to be the most improved pitcher over the last 18 months. With castoffs Wright and Trachsel at the back of the rotation, it’s hard to know what’s ahead. But I do think there was addition by subtraction when you send off Lopez and Chen. Lopez may do very well in the NL, but clearly needed a change of scenery and an attitude adjustment. Meanwhile, with Hayden Penn and Garett Olson down in the minors, we could see a full youth movement by the end of the year and really learn a lot about the future of this team.

For as bad as some of the starters were last year, the bullpen was downright frustrating. No Oriole lead was safe, expect maybe in the 9th innning with Chris Ray. And at one point, Ray was getting overused as Sam Perlozzo had no one else he could trust in the 8th. The Orioles dropped a lot of money into making sure that a lead in the 7th inning means a likely victory. They picked up a closer-quality reliever to work the 8th (as well as provide closer depth), picked up a situation lefty to face the Giambis and Ortizes of the world. How different is this bullpen? The only person on the eight-man bullpen who was on last year’s opening day roster is Chris Ray. And the only other pitcher throw an inning for the O’s was Brian Burres, a September call-up. If the results continue, then it must be a wardrobe problem because the only thing this pen has in common with 2006 are the uniforms. I think the bullpen alone can make a 5-10 game difference for this team. It’s not only about the blown leads, but also the tempation to keep the starters in longer and the confidence the team has in their leads.

The offense? Well, it still lacks a big bopper. Where the Yankees have A-Rod, Giambi, and many others ready to take you downtown, there’s no huge power plant in the Orioles lineup. Aubrey Huff was a great pickup if only because he is capable of 25 HRs–something that no Oriole did in 2006. But picking up Soriano or Lee would’ve been great. They were severely overpaid and the Orioles were right to back off, but the Orioles still need someone to strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers. That said, I think you’ll see a lot more power all up in 2007. Brian Roberts is healthy and could be good for 15-20 (he hit 11 in the second half of last year). Jay Gibbons can stay healthy, he should hit 20-25. Nick Markakis continualyl improved his power stroke and can also end up in the 20-25 range if he can avoid the sophomore jinx. Only Ramon Hernandez overachieved in 2006. I think the X-Factor in this lineup is Melvin Mora. It was a very disappointing year for Melvin and so far removed from his breakout 2004 season. While he’ll never repeat those #s, I think the Orioles would like to see his 2005 #s come back. If they do, the top of this lineup is potent. Defensively, this team is underrated. While whoever the leftfielder is represents a liability, the Orioles are as strong as they get with Patterson and Markakis in center and right. Hernandez and Roberts are among the best at their position, Tejada showed a lot of life at SS last season, and Melvin Mora is underrated at 3rd.

So, can this team win 80 games? I think there are six key questions:

-Will Bedard win 17-20?
-Will Cabrera and Loewen win 25-30 games this year?
-Will the bullpen hold on to 80-90% of those 7th inning leads?
-Will the O’s have at least 3 players hit 25 HRs?
-Will one of the youngsters assert themselves intot he rotation and hold their own but year’s end (Olson or Penn)?
-Will Melvin Mora return to pre-2006 offensive form?

Asking for six things to come through is pretty optimistic, but 4-5 of these things happen and the rest of the team stays relative healthy, I think the Orioles can win 80-85 games–and be in a position to contend in 2008. And who knows, maybe I’ll need to rename this blog. Until then, I’ll be sharing my thoughts and watching the soap opera–as I’ve done all these years with my Fourth Place Birds.