Welcome Wieters!

As the biggest optimist in drafting and signing Wieters, even I was resigned to losing him when nothing was announced last Wednesday night. I was hitting refresh on the Baseball America and the Baltimore Sun websites, anxious for an update. I was also watching ESPN for udpate (not that they cared). The whole time, I kept thinking "it would be ridiculous for Wieters to say no". Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. But they did it. Here's how I think the negotiations closed:

• BORAS: We want $10 million. My client is ready to go back to school.
• WIETERS: Uhh, Scott...
• BORAS: (Whispering to Wieters) Shh, trust me kid.
• MACPHAIL: Scott, $6 million is a lot of money. I think that's fair.
• BORAS: Hey, Matt is a once-in-a-lifetime player.
• MACPHAIL: What about Joe Mauer?
• BORAS: I didn't say it was a long life. Look, Petey, do you want the city of Baltimore to hate you? You can't afford to do this.
• ANGELOS: HA! They already hate me. The question is: can you afford to have Matt hate you?
• BORAS: What do you mean?
• ANGELOS: Well, if he goes back to school, he delays his pro career by a year. Therefore he delays his major league career by a year. He joins us, he's a September call-up in 2008.
• BORAS: Yeah, but if you don't pay him, someone else will.
• ANGELOS: C'mon Scott, you know you have no leverage next year. What is he going to threaten to do next year? Go to grad school and ask for an extra year of eligibility? Why would anyone give you anything more than $2 million next year? Plus, you've just cut a year of this kid's earning potential.
• WIETERS: What is he talking about, Scott?
• ANGELOS: Hey Matt, do you know who Wade Townsend is? Kid thought he could take me to the cleaners. He wouldn't take Markakis money. Waited a year to start his pro career, got LESS money from a worse team, and then had arm injuries. Now he is 24 years old, stuck in A ball, and just got shut down again.
• WIETERS: That won't happen to me, right?
• ANGELOS: Kid, you're a catcher. One foul tip and your fingers are history. What'll that do to your draft position?
• BORAS: You need Matt.
• ANGELOS: Yeah, he'd be great. He can spend the next 10 years catching all this great pitching talent we've assembled. But I can always send Brandon Snyder back behind the plate now that he's got his bat back. I didn't like him at first anyway since I'm gonna break the bank for Texiera.
• BORAS: Glad to hear you say that.
• WIETERS: Wait, what about me.
• ANGELOS: Kid, just sign. You're still getting the best bonus ever. You're going to a great baseball town that is gonna give you a standing O when you are introduced at Camden Yards. Have you ever seen our stadium? It's a cathedral for baseball. Or you can risk getting drafted by the Devil Rays next year and have to play in that hellhole--if you stay healthy. Oh, and if you see Wade Townsend, let him know we love Garrett Olson--the guy we got in compensation for not signing Wade.
• WIETERS: Where do I sign?
• BORAS: Where does he sign?

In the end, it got done and Angelos is either a hero to Oriole fans or a goat to Major League Baseball, who wanted to force "slot bonuses". After what the Tigers and Yankees did, it would've been unfair to expect the Orioles to hold the line. This is ideal--the Orioles didn't cave and still got their man. Plus, I think Boras did have a point in that the best college pitcher and position player should maintian some level of parity. Way to go, Mr. Angelos. We may criticize you and I'll never forgive you for letting Davey, Miller, and Moose leave town, but you came through here.

Now while I am insanely excited that we picked up a potential superstar, let's take a moment to temper our expectations. Once-in-a-blue-moon talent is rare, but we've seen it before. Big Ben McDonald was touted as that. 6'7", 95 MPH fastball, and a hellacious curve they called Big Nasty. Ben set records for ratings from scouts and was literally the greatest prospect of all-time. I was Ben's biggest fan before he even threw his first pitch for the Orioles. He was going to save the franchise for the next 20 years. Well, he did spend parts of seven seasons in an Oriole uniform, but never quite achieved his promise. Arm problems were the main culprit, but he also didn't have the sense for pitching that Mussina (the next year's draft pick) had. To further illustrate the "don't believe the hype" principle, from a scouting perspective, Big Ben was outdone the year after by Todd Van Poppel. Van Poppel was breaking all of Ben's records and was so good that, even though everyone was positive that he was signing with the University of Texas, the A's still drafted him in the first round--willing to take the risk on an impossible sign. When he did sign, the Braves (who had the first pick) were upset that they missed out on the best player in the nation. Well, it's 17 years later. Van Poppel is out of baseball after an essentially non-descript career that was no better than Big Ben's (40-52, 5.58 ERA). Meanwhile, the Braves settled for a young Florida shortstop named Chipper Jones. Yeah, the Braves got over their disappointment. Quick--name two current AL starting catchers that came out of college. Just kidding, don't waste your time. After Varitek, that's it. The moral? Wieters could be great or he could be Larry Bigbie or Keith Reed. Will he adapt to wood bats? Will he hit a major league curve? Now, the odds are better for him than, say, Eli Whiteside. And given his defensive abilities, there should be less doubt that the catching part of his game translates. But he isn't the savior for this organization yet--and this is coming from a guy who is ever the optimist for the Orioles.

Now with that splash of cold water, let's get back to dreaming. I'm talking about when a rotation of Bedard, Loewen, Guthrie, Cabrera, and Olson are throwing to Wieters. I'm talking about when Reimold, Patterson, and Markakis are running down fly balls. While you never know with history not to mention the Orioles recent luck in the first round (Markakis & Loewen notwithstanding), I think it's OK to be a little excited for the future. But don't forget about the present. Let's keep winning series against the Yankees and Red Sox and make this a better place for Wieters arrival...