Gut Check

Well, I spent the last two days in Baltimore as a prelude to my weekend trip to Cooperstown. Just before I got on the red-eye to fly out east, I watched Daniel Cabrera look like a mature major-league pitcher. His stuff was great. His location was great. And he kept erasing walks with double-play balls. In fact, he threw harder than he has all year and had only three strikeouts. Coming on the heels of Guthrie's shutout, that made back-to-back shutouts for the first time in a long time. Throw in Bedard's solid outing (despite not having his best stuff) and the Orioles had quite a run there (23 straight scoreless innings). And this afternoon, they were able to overcome another underwhelming outing by Steve Trachsel to get another sweep of the Devil Rays (they're now 6-0 against the Rays at home).

This was the first time I was at Camden Yards since 2003 (for perspective, Sidney Ponson was in the middle of great season and pitched a great game against the Angels--wow, have times changed). There are few placed I hold in as high esteem as Camden Yards. Not only is it the home of my favorite baseball team where many of my fellow Oriole fans cheer in the middle of the Star-Spangled Banner ("OH!"), but it has a certain vibe that just seems special. The fans get the game. You have Boog's bar-b-q pit. You have the warehouse. You have the courtyard where the retired #s mark the greats that played the game (or managed, in the case of Earl Weaver). With the Harborplace nearby, I just love the experience from beginning to end. You will never have to twist my arm to go catch a game in Baltimore. If only I wasn't a west coaster...

Now, the Yankees come to town and then the O's head to Fenway (the last time the orioles were there, we endured the Mother's Day Massacre). For a team that has been playing much better baseball of late, this will be the real test. The Yankees are playing scary good baseball right now. A-Rod is hot again and now he's got company with Hideki Matsui, who is earning that Godzilla nickname. Meanwhile, it's not like the Orioles knocked around Pettite, Clemens, and Wang last time (they did OK against wang, bu t it's a lot to ask for them to do it again). Miggy may be back, which would be nice from a morale standpoint (as well as just making the lineup look more imposing), but the great play of Gomez and Hernandez has kept the Orioles from really missing him. Still, while they've won 3 of 4 series since the All-Star Break, all wins are against losing teams. The Orioles are playing quality baseball, but this is their gut check and it's one that they've failed in the past (both this season and in seasons past). The question is: can the Orioles beat their big rivals when they are playing at the top of their game. It's hard not to be pessimistic about the week ahead. However, there may be one difference here: the starting pitching. In the six games, they'll get three starts from Guthrie & Bedard and the Orioles feel awfully strong when those guys are on the mound. Heck, the Orioles are undefeated (7-0) when Bedard starts under Dave Trembley.

So, this should be exciting. Again, with the deficit being relatively insurmountable, this isn't about getting back in the race, but rather determining whether they'll even be in the contender conversation next year. I don't think they're far off, but if they continue to lose to the Red Sox & Yankees, then maybe they are. Remember, those were the Opening Day requirements to be competitive--beat the AL East. They're 4-1 against the Yankees so far, but they've never caught the Yankees while they have been hot. They are now and the Red Sox are as well. The stage is set and the birds will be on the spot. Let's see what they can do...