Smart Baseball From The Orioles?

So with the first half of the gut check complete, the Orioles actually have reason to smile. Two out of three is always nice, especially when the opposing pitchers were Pettite, Clemens, and Wang. Jeremy Guthrie had an outing that we're starting to get used to--gutsy, determined, and string enough to win. Guthrie has now won three in a row. That said, he may have been outdone by Brian Burres, who just shut the Yankees down, which was a tall tasks given he hadn't pitched in a week-and-a-half. Take away the start against the White Sox and you really wonder why we're skipping this guy instead of Trachsel or even D-Cab. Speaking of Cabrera, he had another one of those starts again. He is consistently inconsistent. This time, he reverted to the "dig a hole and then help trying to crawl out". The potential is still insane, but at some point, this is getting a little too much to handle. Still, it's hard to dampen the success of taking two of three against the Yankees, who came in playing hot baseball and bringing half of New York down I-95 to see A-Rod's 500th HR. With the Cal Ripken induction on Sunday, there was undoubtedly criss-crossing traffic with those from Maryland heading up to New York while the New Yorkers headed down to Baltimore. While Oriole fans making the trip up were rewarded with a day to remember (I was one of those fans and I will write about it in a future post), those Yankee fans making the 200 mile trip went home with one win and zero HRs from Mr. Rodriguez. There's a balance sheet I can appreciate.

The Orioles have gotten kudos for their second half success. Of course, they have their doubters. For example, on Baseball Tonight Thursday, Eduardo Perez remarked that the Orioles weren't playing the Devil Rays and that's why they were playing better--as if they would be exposed by the Yankees. Well, count Joe Torre as one of the believers as he openly commended the newfound Orioles confidence. I don't think any play embodied it more than Corey Patterson's stolen base on Saturday. In a nutshell, the infield moved in, Corey took a lead, glanced at second. Saw Cano and Jeter creek in a little, noticed thehy wre a little too far in to be able to get back and just ran for it. The Yankees stood there stunned as they lost the chance for the double-play. Smart, aggressive baseball against a team that has done it to them constantly for the last ten years. That's a play that you see Derek Jeter make with us. And this coming from a guy (Patterson) who has taken a lot of heat for non-chalant outfield play. Who knows if this continues throughout the rest of the season or it's just the short-term effects of change and will go away as they settle back into their lethargic selves. This much I now--the Orioles are clearly within striking distance of playing 500 ball this season and that would clearly be a huge step for this team given the amount of youth that is bound to grow. We may see them overmatched by the Red Sox, but then again, maybe not. The gut check goes on...

Gut Check

Well, I spent the last two days in Baltimore as a prelude to my weekend trip to Cooperstown. Just before I got on the red-eye to fly out east, I watched Daniel Cabrera look like a mature major-league pitcher. His stuff was great. His location was great. And he kept erasing walks with double-play balls. In fact, he threw harder than he has all year and had only three strikeouts. Coming on the heels of Guthrie's shutout, that made back-to-back shutouts for the first time in a long time. Throw in Bedard's solid outing (despite not having his best stuff) and the Orioles had quite a run there (23 straight scoreless innings). And this afternoon, they were able to overcome another underwhelming outing by Steve Trachsel to get another sweep of the Devil Rays (they're now 6-0 against the Rays at home).

This was the first time I was at Camden Yards since 2003 (for perspective, Sidney Ponson was in the middle of great season and pitched a great game against the Angels--wow, have times changed). There are few placed I hold in as high esteem as Camden Yards. Not only is it the home of my favorite baseball team where many of my fellow Oriole fans cheer in the middle of the Star-Spangled Banner ("OH!"), but it has a certain vibe that just seems special. The fans get the game. You have Boog's bar-b-q pit. You have the warehouse. You have the courtyard where the retired #s mark the greats that played the game (or managed, in the case of Earl Weaver). With the Harborplace nearby, I just love the experience from beginning to end. You will never have to twist my arm to go catch a game in Baltimore. If only I wasn't a west coaster...

Now, the Yankees come to town and then the O's head to Fenway (the last time the orioles were there, we endured the Mother's Day Massacre). For a team that has been playing much better baseball of late, this will be the real test. The Yankees are playing scary good baseball right now. A-Rod is hot again and now he's got company with Hideki Matsui, who is earning that Godzilla nickname. Meanwhile, it's not like the Orioles knocked around Pettite, Clemens, and Wang last time (they did OK against wang, bu t it's a lot to ask for them to do it again). Miggy may be back, which would be nice from a morale standpoint (as well as just making the lineup look more imposing), but the great play of Gomez and Hernandez has kept the Orioles from really missing him. Still, while they've won 3 of 4 series since the All-Star Break, all wins are against losing teams. The Orioles are playing quality baseball, but this is their gut check and it's one that they've failed in the past (both this season and in seasons past). The question is: can the Orioles beat their big rivals when they are playing at the top of their game. It's hard not to be pessimistic about the week ahead. However, there may be one difference here: the starting pitching. In the six games, they'll get three starts from Guthrie & Bedard and the Orioles feel awfully strong when those guys are on the mound. Heck, the Orioles are undefeated (7-0) when Bedard starts under Dave Trembley.

So, this should be exciting. Again, with the deficit being relatively insurmountable, this isn't about getting back in the race, but rather determining whether they'll even be in the contender conversation next year. I don't think they're far off, but if they continue to lose to the Red Sox & Yankees, then maybe they are. Remember, those were the Opening Day requirements to be competitive--beat the AL East. They're 4-1 against the Yankees so far, but they've never caught the Yankees while they have been hot. They are now and the Red Sox are as well. The stage is set and the birds will be on the spot. Let's see what they can do...

More with Less

A weekend series in Oakland has been less than a treat over the past few years. In fact, anything against the A's has been a recipe for disaster. But, given the Orioles took two of three in the last matchup and that the A's were struggling offensively, this weekend had quite the possibilities. And, thanks to some killer starting pitching, it paid off. The Dynamic Duo of Bedard and Guthrie came through again. 14 innings pitched and one run on three hits allowed--and one of those hits was a wind-blown pop-up that should've been caught. It's amazing to see the A's struggle as much as they did, but I don't think many teams could've handled what Bedard & Guthrie were dealing. Who would've thought that 3 of the top 5 AL ERAs in late July would be Orioles (Guthrie #2 and Bedard #5). For Guthrie, it was a return to form and arguably one of his best starts of the year. In Friday + Sunday's games, the Orioles let two baserunners past first base combined! One was the Ellis HR that broke up the no-hitter and the other was the runner that took second on indifference in the ninth inning of a five-run game (I think we can let that one slide). Even Saturday's game was winnable and I am still disgusted by the called strike three to Roberts that turned a huge rally into a mild one. Still, Steve Trachsel was the only one that really didn't have a weekend to feel proud of and one has to wonder if he'll be an Oriole on August 1st. With Olson throwing six shutout innings in Norfolk on the same day, it seems like it's only a matter of time. Of course, August 1st doesn't need to be the bewitching day as I am betting he'd pass through waivers, if necessary.

So, the Orioles continue to play solid baseball under Dave Trembley. I have to admit that I wasn't in support of him getting the job, but I may be changing my tune. I feel more confident going into series (though the Yankees exploding bats this weekend are more than a little scary for this coming homestand). With Tejada's return around the corner (admit it--you didn't miss him as much as you expected) and Mora as well, the Orioles could be at full strength pretty soon. Imagine Roberts, Patterson, and Markakis maintaining some level of momentum and a rejuvenated Tejada in the clean-up spot. I know Patterson and Markakis can't continue this forever, but Millar is getting some great RBI opportunities and, while I like Mr. Cowboy Up, I'd feel better giving those to Miggy. A pair of aces. A bullpen that, with the exception of the bases-loaded walk, has been great in the second half. And a modicum of offense which includes some clutch two-out hits. Finally, something to put a smile on my face. Of course, the D-Rays can completely ruin that if they come up and the lineup does what it's capable of doing. D-Cab and Trachsel have been hard to predict, so anything is possible, but Bedard has got an opportunity to continue a great run (23 IP, 1 ER since he claimed he had a tired arm). Seeing as how I'll be in Baltimore to check out games 2 & 3, I'm looking for some home cookin' (and a free Cal T-Shirt).

Whither Daniel Cabrera

Well, losing two out of three to a pretty-hot Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field isn't completely unbearable. That said, you can't help but wonder what happens if Jay Payon extends his arm out on the Yuniesky Betencourt double on Monday and if Chad Bradford could've hit the strike zone one more time against Adrian Beltre on Wednesday. As disappointing as it was, the Orioles played some tough baseball. Their bats would occasionally go flat, but they were still good for an eight-run eruption on Tuesday and a four-run comeback on Wednesday (wow, how many times have they done that in the last few weeks?). Personally, I am pretty happy with the pen. They gave up a couple of runs in eight or nine innings. Danys Baez went one batter too long, but I didn't get that churn in my stomach when he entered the game. Meanwhile, Chad Bradford pitched after a decent rest--that's nice to see. You wonder how much of the bullpen's progress has to do with Dave Trembley and how much would've happened with Perlozzo. Same goes for the resurgence of Corey Patterson (wow, is he fun to watch so far this half) and Jay Gibbons (slowly, but surely). They continue to play without Tejada & Mora, but they don't look as overmatched as I would've guessed (props to Gomez and Luis Hernandez for filling in admirably).

My take is that with the 2-3 months remaining, they are playing for 500 baseball and momentum into 2008. Adjusting the bullpen (Jim Hoey better be up by the end of August and we might as well look at Corey Doyne), determining a couple of resignings (which Corey Patterson would we have?), and setting next year's rotation are priorities. That means any start by Steve Trachsel is an audition. If the O's keep a veteran, it'll be Kris Benson. Tracshel may not have a ton of trade value, but if a team can take Jason Kendall, there must be demand for Trachsel. Even if they get an Adam Stern in return (like last year's unloading of Javy Lopez), that's fine. You clear a path for both Olson and Burres to get their shots. Frankly, While Bedard & Guthrie are the only locks, only one is in the rotation next year, assuming Adam Loewen is back and healthy. Plus, you'll need room in the rotation for Hayden Penn to get some September starts. He's still only 22, but at some point, the Orioles will need to get final judgment on him. It'd be great to see him accrue some trade value if the Orioles decide he is not part of the future. But that does bring up one huge wild card. And when I say huge, I mean six feet and nine inches of a wild card.

As you'll notice, I didn't describe Daniel Cabrera as a lock. Sadly, he may have the highest ceiling of any of the Orioles. But here's a guy that just can't put it together and keep it together. He has been tutored by two of the best (Miller & Mazzone) and you just never know what you'll get with him. When he's on, he embarasses hitters with a devastating fastball and unhittable curve. WHen he's not, he's behind 2-0 and 3-1 and either issuing walks or throwing the world's fastest BP pitches. This is his fourth year in the big leagues and we get excited every year about what he is capable of doing. I spent yesterday watching the game and thinking "I just can't take much of this anymore". It's unnerving as a fan and I can only imagine what it does to a manager and GM. Until he gets it together, this team will NEVER do anything worthy of contention. Of course, if you trade him, you risk being the Montreal Expos, who dealt Randy Johnson at 26 and assumed he'd never reach his potential. Nearly 20 years later, he is still pitching and may go down as the greatest lefty of all-time. Will that be Cabrera. Given the Orioles have had quite a few talented guys leave to find success (Byrnes, Cust, Maine), you never know. As I recall, the O's gave up on Jose Mesa at a similar age and he had a pretty impressive career. Of course, I never bemoaned that because I just knew it wouldn't happen in an Orioles uniform. What could Cabrera fetch in the trade market? Some GM has to believe he can unearth a steal here and might be willing to take a gamble for the same payoff the Mariners got with Randy Johnson. If so, maybe it's time for the Orioles to gamble by giving him up. With Bedard, Guthrie, Loewen, Penn, Olson, and Burres all being 28 or under, the future of the rotation has a lot of options (and I haven't even touched on Beato, Erbe, and some of the other talented guys that may be further down the road).

Frankly, I'd like nothing more than to see Cabrera win a Cy Young in an Oriole uniform. But I don't think that'll happen and I'd rather see Penn or Olson get the starting spot. At least the team will save $$ on the amount of antacids it'll need to watch a game.

Who Was That Team?

Wow. What a weekend. I have to admit as I saw a Jim Thome fly ball sail over Jay Gibbons glove (as Jay jumped INTO the wall) on Thursday night that this team was simply doomed. After all, this was Jeremy Guthrie coughing it up. Was the Cinderella story over? For the next 10 minutes, I winced in pain as Guthrie let his two-strike pitches catch too much of the plate and Jay Gibbons looked like a little leaguer in the field, costing the team play after play. Yep, after hearing about Dave Trembley's pep talk, I was embarassed about this team and that the team probably heard the speech, but didn't listen.

But then something happened...

The Orioles starting playing like a big league ball club.

With their $25 million left side of the infield on the DL. With their disappointing 5-7 hitters (Huff, Gibbons, Ramon) continuing to struggle. With their most consistent starter knocked around like he was Sidney Ponson. For one glorious weekend, the Orioles fought back.

And fighting back begins with an ace.

Erik Bedard was absolutely outstanding again. Going up against Mark Buehrle, he took out the recently-rewarded pitched with his third shutout in four starts (though he needed help with two). It's as if he was sending a message to the Oriole brass: "If Buehrle is worth that much, how much am I worth?" Not so fast, Erik. But keep it up and you'll be right there.

Of course, even a shutout is often not enough to beat Mark Buehrle. So, the Orioles went the power route (they hit seven in the series!) with Markakis and Patterson going deep. Nick hadn't hit one in a month. Corey had only hit two all season before that one. A nice lean 2-0 win with a good job from the bullpen, including Chris Ray (more on him in a minute). Saturday featured yet another four-run comeback. For a team with such an anemic offense, the O's have pulled off quite a few of these comebacks of late. It's as if the pressure of the close game removed and with nothing the lose, the Orioles start hitting and pitching. Chill, guys! Anyway, it was a reminder of the power of the long-ball when Millar and Payton quickly turned 5-1 into 5-4. And Markakis and Patterson showed the value of hustle, both advancing to third on fly balls. Patterson also stole a clutch base and Markakis made the gutsy call to go for home on the wild pitch (good thing given Payton struck out). Sometimes, you need to make your own breaks. Meanwhile, Chris Ray got the win by a three up, three down inning that seemed to last a minute.

Sunday's game was remarkable in how unremarkable it was (save for Garrett Olson's first big league win). Solid starting pitching. Timely hitting. Some power. Great effort from the bullpen. Baez setting it up. Ray nailing it. This is exactly how Flanagan and Duquette have wanted this season to go. Get ahead, and then let the former stopper and current stopper slam the door. I think the idea of Danys Baez actually doing what he was acquired to do is exciting. Suddenly, that takes pressure off of Bradford & Walker (who were already overworked--notice Bradford didn't pitch yesterday) and gives the team the bullpen balance (and overall tea confidence) it so desperately needs. And let the Chris Ray we saw from April to June be a distant memory as the guy we see now keeps the ball down and away. It's as if Leo Mazzone was his pitching coach. Oh wait, he IS the pitching coach. I guess it's a question of listening, sometimes.

So we are 91 games into the season. If this blog wasn't called "Fourth Place Birds", it could've been called "41-50" as that has been the Oriole record for four of the past five seasons after 91 games. I find that a little spooky given how different every season feels. The Orioles always end up here (the lone exception being 2005, where they got off to the great start and then had the second half from hell). Now, where they go from here has varied. None of the teams has gone 40-31 (the price for .500). Of course, we all want to believe this year's final 71 will be different (the best has been 37-34) and if the play like they did this weekend, it's a distinct possibility--even with Tejada and Mora continuing to miss action. Great pitching, great heart, and plain solid baseball from inning 1 to 9. That was Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Now they need to make it July, August, September. C'mon O's--make this a place Mark Teixeira would want to play.

And plus, you're in Seattle this week, so I'll be watching you in person on Tuesday and Wednesday. Show me something.

Bring On The Second Half

So I took the week off from blogging. After all, bloggers need an All-Star Break too. Given the Orioles only had one star and he was involved in a play that nearly cost the AL the game in the 9th, it wasn't a big week for the Orioles. I will say that the last series that the Orioles played against the Rangers featured three interesting things: the re-disappearance of the Oriole offense, a spirited comeback against Eric Gagne (you just don't see that often), and possibly the best pitching performance I have ever seen by an Oriole.

Erik Bedard was absolutely unbelievable. As someone described it, he pitched a two-hit perfect game. He let up a single to the second batter of the game, then retire 24 of 25--15 on strikeouts. That's the sort of thing that happens in Little League or High School, not the major leagues. It is amazing how far he has come since his rookie season. I don't know if it's Mazzone, the comfort of being the team's ace, or just plain understanding the importance of getting ahead in the count, but I don't know another starting pitcher I'd take over him right now (well, let's just say the list is VERY short). There's a lot of talk about signing him to a long-term deal. He still has two years under the O's control, but it's probably not a bad idea. When you see the $$ given to Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito, it's insane what a Bedard would command on the open market if he continues this. Let's do what we did with Moose the first time (three-year deal signed well ahead of free agency) as opposed to the second time (ignore the home team discount until it is too late and then watch him go to the Yankees--not that Bedard could survive the NY or Boston press).

Meanwhile, I don't know why the Orioles couldn't hit the Rangers better than they did. Admittedly, Kam Loe has been pitching much better. But c'mon--Kevin Millwood? D-Cab wasn't sharp, but was gutty and that's a good sign. That said, the game-winning hit was a HR by Kenny Lofton. Kenny Lofton?!? The guy is like 40 and couldn't hit for power in his 20s. That's what happens when you fall behind 2-0 instead of getting ahead 0-2. There are some days I think Cabrera is so close and others where I think he could be bait for the big bat (Texiera, anyone?). Of course, that's how the Expos gave up on Randy Johnson. He was bait for the big arm (Mark Langston) and ended up being arguably the greatest lefty of all-time.

So, here we are at the break. Injuries have been frustrating--no more so that the ones to Loewen and Tejada. That said, we all wish Baez had gotten injured sooner so that we wouldn't have to have endured that painful May and June he put together. The failure of Baez and Jay Gibbons are, in my opinion, worth at least 5-10 games this year. At least. Two players who are paid handsomely and have performed in the past, but have failed miserably and their failure has put pressure on others which has made their team worse. And where someone like Corey Patterson still provides defense when he slumping, there's been little value at all for Baez & Gibbons. With that said, I don't think all is lost. I do think redemption is possible for the duo. After all, it couldn't get any worse, could it? I think the balance of the season hangs on a few key scenarios:

• The return of Gibbons & Baez (and let's throw in Ramon & Huff) to legitimate form. Heck, career averages would be fine. At least two, more likely three, and ideally all four can do this.
• Jeremy Guthrie proves he is no flash in the pan. He and Bedard make a scary 1-2 punch. Just ask the Yankees.
• The speedy return of an energized Tejada. They need his bat in the lineup, if only to scare the opposition. And when I say his bat, I don't mean the Polanco edition. I mean Tejada vintage 2002-2004.
  

Obviously, there are other things I'd like to see, like D-Cab gaining consistency, Burres' continued evolution, a second half where Garrett Olson never leaves the majors, and a major 2nd half for Nick Markakis (who has had great second halves in his pro career). But all of those are hopes and everything above are things I think are fair to expect to happen. Will they? I don't know. But they could make the difference between .500 and this blog being called the "Fifth-place Birds". Let the second half begin.

Showing Some Life

I usually write these blog posts at the end of a series as every series seems to have its own story, both on its own as well as in the evolution of a long 162-game season. This week, I fell a little behind on my post about the Angels series. I had a post all planned about how the Orioles were a couple of breaks away from a sweep of the top team in the AL, whether it was a Friday night Chris Ray fastball or a Sunday afternoon bad call by an umpire (though in all fairness, the first base ump may have blown the previous call on the Jay Payton bunt as he looked out). On a day when Jeremy Guthrie struggled for a stretch of five batters in the 4th + one pitch in the 8th and yet dominated throughout the rest of the game, it would've been great to come back against K-Rod. Meanwhile, Friday's return from a 5-0 deficit was heartwarming too--until they blew the lead. And so it goes, the Orioles seem like the snake-bitten team that can't catch the right breaks when they are playing well and seem particularly jinxed when they are NOT playing well. That said, they deserve credit for posting relatively strong offensive #s against some solid pitchers in the last two weeks. Over that time, they've faced Cy Young Winners (Clemens, Webb, Colon) and Runner Ups (Pettite, Wang), and All Stars (Lackey, Escobar--at least he should be) and seem to fare better against these guys than Micah Bowie. Plus, they are starting to feel some HR mojo as they homered in several straight games. Not bad for a lineup that is missing Miguel Tejada.

Yep, this blog post was going to be all about guys that play hard, but can't seem to catch a break and can't come back in the ninth (we've been down this complaining road before). But then I got to see Monday's game before writing this post. Trailing 6-2 to Mark Buehrle on Erik Bedard's biggest dud since Opening Day, the O's posted 3 in the 8th and 2 in the 9th against Bobby Jenks to take the game. In a game the served as a photo negative of the season, the offense scored seven runs to save a poor start and the bullpen came through with 3.1 scoreless innings, including a 3-K 9th from Chris Ray. That is the exact opposite of everything we've seen this year. It's clear how much of a boost the Orioles get from a revived Corey Patterson (average up to .239) and while Kevin Millar may not be the big bat everyone wanted at first base, I still like my chances when he's at bat in a clutch situation. If Huff and/or Gibbons can get it going consistently, this team can be very good. But this has been a season of ifs and who knows how it plays out. When you look at the White Sox, they can empathize. They've had great starting pitching (a little better than the O's), while a horrible bullpen (a little worse than the O's) and a disappointing offense (just like the O's). A small part of me (very small) almost felt bad for them last night because I felt their pain. How many games have the Orioles lost in the same fashion? Well, hopefully they don't do it back to the Orioles in the next few games. After a pretty tough schedule over the past few weeks, the Orioles close the first half against two teams (Chicago, Texas) who are well below .500. Admittedly, both teams are talented, but they have underachieved (Ranger pitching has been atrocious and their infield is almost entirely on the DL--Michael Young should look both ways before crossing the street). Even on the road, this is the time for the Orioles to finish out the half strong--no excuses this time around. Monday night was a good start, but they need some solid innings from D-Cab and tomorrow's mystery starter (Olson? Bell?).