Ten Painful Days

Wow, it's amazing to see the wheels come off for a team so quickly. The last time I bloggest, things were pretty hunky-dory for the O's. They knocked off the Sox & Yanks in back-to-back series. They signed Matt Wieters. They were on the verge of signing Dave Trembley to a contract extension. A 500 record seemed very possible. And then this. And it all started when I took some time off from blogging. Who knew they were such big fans.

Obviously, the 30-3 isn't worth talking about. Frankly, other than avoiding SportsCenter for a day, it didn't bother me that much. Especially compared to the litany of games where the Orioles led after 7 and blew it. Five times!!! In a week!!! Unbelievable. I have never seen such a lack of confidence in a group of pitchers. Jim Hoey, who was lights out for a few weeks, suddenly reverted back to the deer in headlights he was last year and earlier this year. Chad Brad is amazingly hittable. Paul Shuey had no business in the majors. Danys Baez couldn't close out a game after being one strike away. Listen, BJ Upton is a great hitter, but when you are on a seven game losing streak, you step up and close that thing out. And Baez didn't. Ugh. Literally, Trembley got the contract and all hell broke loose. Shoddy baserunning. Little league fielding. Leadoff walks. They are playing like Sam Perlozzo got invited back for a stint. Heck, the O's weren't even this bad when Sammy was here. The problem is that this keeps getting worse. They scored 8 and six runs against the D-Rays and still got swept at home! First swept by the Nationals and now the D-Rays at Camden Yards. How amazing is that? Think about it--with everything else in the season as crappy as it has been, the O's would be near 500 if they had done the sweeping instead of being swept in those two series. And they can't beat the Twins ALL SEASON! They're a good team, but COME ON! Jeremy Guthrie has been inconsistent. Ramon Hernandez is jinxed (I've never seen one man robbed more in my life). Losing Chris Ray made a bad bullpen MUCH worse. What does this mean for next given Ray isn't coming back. Do you replace everyone? Do you assume the $42M men will bounce back? Do you sign a free agent like Gagne, who despite his Red Sox issues, is still better than anyone in the Orioles pen. Given Flanagan and Duquette credit--they knew where this team most needed fixing. However, they didn't fix it. In fact, I don't remember it being this bad last year.

Meanwhile, I can't believe I am saying this, but maybe the Orioles shouldn't deal Trachsel. They are so desperate for consistent starting pitching behind Bedard and they're not getting it from DCab, Guthrie, or Olson. On the other hand, that may force the hand of the Cubs or whomever else steps up with a legit offer. Maybe the Orioles will get someone good. Maybe he could step in this year. Maybe he won't be allergic to the 8th inning.

Now, the O's ride a nine-game losing streak into Fenway and start a pair of pitchers who have a half-dozen career majopr league starts COMBINED. And they are facing the league's most patient team. This does NOT bode well. Well, Mr. Liz and Mr. Olson, let's find out how good the Oriole farm system really is.

Welcome Wieters!

As the biggest optimist in drafting and signing Wieters, even I was resigned to losing him when nothing was announced last Wednesday night. I was hitting refresh on the Baseball America and the Baltimore Sun websites, anxious for an update. I was also watching ESPN for udpate (not that they cared). The whole time, I kept thinking "it would be ridiculous for Wieters to say no". Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. But they did it. Here's how I think the negotiations closed:

• BORAS: We want $10 million. My client is ready to go back to school.
• WIETERS: Uhh, Scott...
• BORAS: (Whispering to Wieters) Shh, trust me kid.
• MACPHAIL: Scott, $6 million is a lot of money. I think that's fair.
• BORAS: Hey, Matt is a once-in-a-lifetime player.
• MACPHAIL: What about Joe Mauer?
• BORAS: I didn't say it was a long life. Look, Petey, do you want the city of Baltimore to hate you? You can't afford to do this.
• ANGELOS: HA! They already hate me. The question is: can you afford to have Matt hate you?
• BORAS: What do you mean?
• ANGELOS: Well, if he goes back to school, he delays his pro career by a year. Therefore he delays his major league career by a year. He joins us, he's a September call-up in 2008.
• BORAS: Yeah, but if you don't pay him, someone else will.
• ANGELOS: C'mon Scott, you know you have no leverage next year. What is he going to threaten to do next year? Go to grad school and ask for an extra year of eligibility? Why would anyone give you anything more than $2 million next year? Plus, you've just cut a year of this kid's earning potential.
• WIETERS: What is he talking about, Scott?
• ANGELOS: Hey Matt, do you know who Wade Townsend is? Kid thought he could take me to the cleaners. He wouldn't take Markakis money. Waited a year to start his pro career, got LESS money from a worse team, and then had arm injuries. Now he is 24 years old, stuck in A ball, and just got shut down again.
• WIETERS: That won't happen to me, right?
• ANGELOS: Kid, you're a catcher. One foul tip and your fingers are history. What'll that do to your draft position?
• BORAS: You need Matt.
• ANGELOS: Yeah, he'd be great. He can spend the next 10 years catching all this great pitching talent we've assembled. But I can always send Brandon Snyder back behind the plate now that he's got his bat back. I didn't like him at first anyway since I'm gonna break the bank for Texiera.
• BORAS: Glad to hear you say that.
• WIETERS: Wait, what about me.
• ANGELOS: Kid, just sign. You're still getting the best bonus ever. You're going to a great baseball town that is gonna give you a standing O when you are introduced at Camden Yards. Have you ever seen our stadium? It's a cathedral for baseball. Or you can risk getting drafted by the Devil Rays next year and have to play in that hellhole--if you stay healthy. Oh, and if you see Wade Townsend, let him know we love Garrett Olson--the guy we got in compensation for not signing Wade.
• WIETERS: Where do I sign?
• BORAS: Where does he sign?

In the end, it got done and Angelos is either a hero to Oriole fans or a goat to Major League Baseball, who wanted to force "slot bonuses". After what the Tigers and Yankees did, it would've been unfair to expect the Orioles to hold the line. This is ideal--the Orioles didn't cave and still got their man. Plus, I think Boras did have a point in that the best college pitcher and position player should maintian some level of parity. Way to go, Mr. Angelos. We may criticize you and I'll never forgive you for letting Davey, Miller, and Moose leave town, but you came through here.

Now while I am insanely excited that we picked up a potential superstar, let's take a moment to temper our expectations. Once-in-a-blue-moon talent is rare, but we've seen it before. Big Ben McDonald was touted as that. 6'7", 95 MPH fastball, and a hellacious curve they called Big Nasty. Ben set records for ratings from scouts and was literally the greatest prospect of all-time. I was Ben's biggest fan before he even threw his first pitch for the Orioles. He was going to save the franchise for the next 20 years. Well, he did spend parts of seven seasons in an Oriole uniform, but never quite achieved his promise. Arm problems were the main culprit, but he also didn't have the sense for pitching that Mussina (the next year's draft pick) had. To further illustrate the "don't believe the hype" principle, from a scouting perspective, Big Ben was outdone the year after by Todd Van Poppel. Van Poppel was breaking all of Ben's records and was so good that, even though everyone was positive that he was signing with the University of Texas, the A's still drafted him in the first round--willing to take the risk on an impossible sign. When he did sign, the Braves (who had the first pick) were upset that they missed out on the best player in the nation. Well, it's 17 years later. Van Poppel is out of baseball after an essentially non-descript career that was no better than Big Ben's (40-52, 5.58 ERA). Meanwhile, the Braves settled for a young Florida shortstop named Chipper Jones. Yeah, the Braves got over their disappointment. Quick--name two current AL starting catchers that came out of college. Just kidding, don't waste your time. After Varitek, that's it. The moral? Wieters could be great or he could be Larry Bigbie or Keith Reed. Will he adapt to wood bats? Will he hit a major league curve? Now, the odds are better for him than, say, Eli Whiteside. And given his defensive abilities, there should be less doubt that the catching part of his game translates. But he isn't the savior for this organization yet--and this is coming from a guy who is ever the optimist for the Orioles.

Now with that splash of cold water, let's get back to dreaming. I'm talking about when a rotation of Bedard, Loewen, Guthrie, Cabrera, and Olson are throwing to Wieters. I'm talking about when Reimold, Patterson, and Markakis are running down fly balls. While you never know with history not to mention the Orioles recent luck in the first round (Markakis & Loewen notwithstanding), I think it's OK to be a little excited for the future. But don't forget about the present. Let's keep winning series against the Yankees and Red Sox and make this a better place for Wieters arrival...

Trembley Ball Comes To The Bronx

I won't bother commenting on the Matt Wieters negotiations just yet for two reasons: (1) I want to let the events play out and (2) what just happened in the Bronx is a pretty big deal and it's worth enjoying that instead of getting lost in the morass that is the Wieters negotations. Nevertheless, I am sure I will have an interim post with my thoughts once it plays out. Just one message to the O's brass: get 'er done.

Now back to the present, whatta series. The Orioles had won two of three from the Yanks in each of the first three meetings this year. But they hadn't faced a Yankee team this hot all season and they were especially hot in Yankee Stadium. When Jeremy Guthrie wasn't bringing his A-game, you had to think it was going to be a long series. For the record, I think Jeremy is going to be fine, but he needs to work through this the way Bedard worked through his issues in 2005 and became the star in 2006 and superstar in 2007. But even with Guthrie's struggles, for the fourth time this season, the O's took two of three! How? Pitching and enough clutch hitting. They even nearly took the first game thanks to some good bullpen work and showing a lot of heart in the late going (again!). If Mora scores, that game is completely different. And then the 12-0 blowout was a shocker. How does a team that hot game that badly beat in every facet of the game? And D-Cab continues his good start/bad start alternating routine. That's the D-Cab I am prepared and pleased to accept. Still wild, but no one really hits the ball solidly. Frankly, going into game 3 with Bedard on the mound, I was feeling pretty good about a series win. How many times have I said that about a series in the Bronx? Usually, I watch the Orioles go in there and hope we get at least one. That's the power that is Bedard and why they need to get that long-term deal done in the off-season. And even though he got vultured out of his 13th win, the O's won again. So, let's review:

• The Orioles have won 8 of 12 from the Yankees. They won 7 all of last year and that was one of their better years!-The Orioles came very close to winning three of those four games that the Yankees took. The A-Rod walkoff, the suspended game that should have been called sooner and the Orioles still nearly came back, and then Monday's comeback that fell short. Imagine if they were 11-1...
• Bedard gave up three runs in his first inning against the Yankees this year. Since that inning, 20 straight shutout innings, only allowing 8 hits.
• Jim Hoey has had four straight scoreless outings against the top AL East rivals. In fact, he had retired nine straight before he gave up a single, and then got the DP from Jeter. What a shot in the arm he could be...
• Aubrey Huff with HRs in back-to-back games. His bat would make this offense legitimate.
• Two words: Corey Patterson. Whoever knows what the difference is between first-half Patterson and second-half Patterson would be a rich man. Frankly, when he plays like this, there are very few centerfielders I'd take over him. Gap power, terror on the bases, and great coverage in CF. Each day, he gets more expensive to sign, but if the O's were confident he could keep it up, you gotta bring him back.

So, obviously, there's a lot of stuff to get excited about here. Sure, the Duncan HR was disappointing, if only because it took a win away from Bedard, prevented back-to-back shutouts of the league's hottest offense, and reminded us that the back-end of the bullpen continues to be inconsistent. But the way the O's came back was a great reminder to the Yanks and the rest of the league that this team will not go quietly. Welcome to Trembley Ball.

The I-95 Trail of Tears

When you go through nine losing seasons, it's hard to say there are any must-win series that come around. AFter all, your pretty much a footnote on somebody else's playoff season and, other than playing a memorable role of spoiler and holding out hope for next year, it doesn't really make much of a difference. But when Red Sox Nation took over Camden Yards this weekend, it was war. The legions of Red Sox fans descended onto our home and tried to turn the place into Fenway South. You could see it in the crowds, which were far more red than orange. You could hear it in the cheers when things went well for the Red Sox. Granted, Baltimore is beautiful in the summertime and it's a great place to visit. But this was ridiculous and the CBS announcers couldn't get enough of it. They constantly commented on the fact that it was really a home game for the Red Sox, regardless of geography. Even after Saturday's game, Jason Varitek commented "It feels like a home game here. They give us a spark that other teams can't get when they're on the road." Now, if you are an Oriole fan, those words should sting. Granted, the play on the field doesn't necessarily deserve the allegiance that the Red Sox enjoy. But nobody should be outdoing Oriole fans in their house. And that's why the results of this weekend felt so good. Bedard throws a gem, but gets burned by a couple of bad calls and then the bullpen (which suffered a hangover from the Mariner series). Things looked as they always do with the Orioles-Red Sox series. But then the Orioles practically pulled a reverse of the Mother's Day Massacre, only in the 8th and down 5-1 instead of 5-0. No matter--I'm confident the Red Sox fans felt just as bad. Against Gagne and Okajima, the Orioles showed a lot of heart--something I wasn't seeing in the Perlozzo days. Heck, even in Saturday's loss, they wouldn't go down without the fight. How many pitches did Aubrey Huff foul off? That was amazing. When Miguel Tejada's line drive nestled into the left field stands, I let out the loudest yell I have in years. It was vintage Miggy--clutch and turning the tide. When Millar ended it in the 10th with his first walk-off HR since he was doing it with the Red Sox, the Red Sox fans had to take on the long drive home, undoubtedly griping about their bullpen (given his French Canadian descent, I wonder what is French for "F--king Gagne"). I was inspired for the title of the blog from a comment made on Rock Kubatko's blog. I don't want to help the Yankees, but then again, I always said I thought the Yankees were going to make it a race and I'd love to see them win just to remind people that you can't count teams out--especially those with 200+ million dollar payrolls. And the Red Sox Nation has been a little too full of themselves this year and blowing a double-digit lead would be a realtive comeuppance.

As for the Orioles, they have become the cardiac kids. When the 8th and 9th innings roll around, they no longer have to roll over and play dead. Personally, I think a lot of the credit goes to Millar. He keeps things light in the clubhouse. He plays the game with respect. He makes everyone else on the team better. Yeah, I'd rather have Albert Pujols at first base, but team chemistry needs a catalyst and this guy is it. He's the anti-Albert Belle. Players like to play for the Orioles. Anyone remember 2005 when Jay Gibbons admitted that people were counting the days till the end of the season? And he had a pretty good 2005. This year, he completely stinks and yet he was disappointed to be out for the season as he admitted he was having fun. If you've ever been on a sports team in your life, you know how much better you play when you like your teammates. Add to that the mountings successes like this weekend and you start to believe. And when you start to believe, anything is possible. With that, they head off to New York. Guthrie opens things, followed by D-Cab & Bedard. The O's miss Clemens due to the suspension, but with the way the Yankees have been knocking the ball around, it may not make a difference who pitches. But remember, anything is possible...

I Guess We're The Patsies

Did you ever see that scene from Hoosiers when Dennis Hopper's characeter, who has reformed himself throughout the movie, suddenly relapses into an alchoholic stupor and disappoints everyone that put their hopes into him. Well, that's how I felt about the Oriole bullpen after this week's series against the Mariners. As discussed in the last post, the Mariners only had one advantage over the Orioles--the bullpen. Their starting lineup wasn't much better and the Orioles were better, starting pitcher for starting pitcher. In this case, the Mariners struggled on the road and aginst righties. Given the O's were at home and throwing three righties in the mix, this had the makings of a great series. But then the pen had its relapse.

It seemed like it all started with Jamie Walker in Game 1. Walker had been great for two months and it looked like a perfect set-up when he came into that game. He was facing a struggling Raul Ibanez, who had not only been going through a power outage but also struggled in his career against Walker. So when Ibanez hit the 2-run shot, that was an omen for things to come. The Mariners may have a lot of mediocre talent, but they looked like the 1927 Yankees this week. In addition, the Orioles were sloppy in the field and didn't get their clutch hits (how do you score 3 runs on 15 hits, like the O's did in Game 1). They looked like the team that Sam Perlozzo led for months. This isn't Trembley-ball and we won't be seeing Trembley-ball in 2008 if this kinda play keeps up.

It's hard to imagine coming out this series and then realizing the Orioles have to face Dice-K, Beckett, and Schilling this weekend and then head to Yankee Stadium. This is where scary losing streaks start. But that's why you have an ace and that's why the Orioles are going to appreciate having not traded Erik Bedard. If they've got a prayer, it's Friday night. They're a playoff team when Bedard is on the mound (nine straight wins when he starts) and they'll need him to be the stopper.

Who Are You Calling A Patsy?

When you are a playoff-caliber team, there are things you expect to be able to do. Win home series against pretty much everyone. Sweep against the weak teams. Win road series against those weak team and hang on and don't get swept on the road against the top teams. If you're really good, you starting wining even those road series. If that's the litmus for success, the Orioles have been doing a pretty good job since the break. Their two series losses were on the road against playoff teams. They've won all home series, including a sweep of the Rays, 3 of 4 from the White Sox, and 2 of 3 from the Yankees. And they've won road series against the A's and now Devil Rays. Going into this weekend, a win was the expectation and the result. And while Saturday's 9-2 loss was disappointing, it can be said that the Rays were due and with Scott Kazmir on the mound with his good stuff, you can accept one letdown.

Now, the Orioles take on the Mariners and Red Sox at home. Watching the two teams play yesterday, I was listening to the Mariners broadcasters, who also subscribed to my theory. Only, they were clearly marking the Orioles as one of the weak teams in the league and the Mariners as one of the top. They mentioned how they had survived the rough part of the schedule and could now finally feast on the American League softies. Hmm. For a team that hasn't done squat in four years, the Mariners are awfully confident. And maybe they should be--after all, that's a solid bullpen they have. And some of those hitters are awesome, like Ichiro and, umm, uhh...Well, they got some serious decent overpaid hitters like Beltre, Sexson, etc. Anyway, I'm not saying the Orioles should destroy the Mariners this week and maybe the Mariners are good enough to give the Orioles all they can handle (perhaps my bias of living in Seattle affects this post), but should the Orioles be willing to accept anything less than 2 of 3 (which is what the Mariners thought THEY should be expecting). Trachsel against Weaver--as much as I may not like Trachsel, he's been better than Weaver. Guthrie against Felix Hernandez--while King Felix can turn it up at any time, Guthrie had won three straight starts before the no decision at Fenway and I think he's ready to put on a show at home. Finally, D-Cab against Horacio Ramirez. How the Orioles let this guy off the hook last time is beyond me, but it can't happen again. Meanwhile, Cabrera can be a wild card (pun intended), but there's no doubt in my mind that he's a better pitcher than Ramirez. So, a team with one bonafid star hitter and a rotation that pales in comparison to their counterpart (at least statistically) in each game and we're the underdog? At what point do (a) the Orioles wake up and realize there's no reason why they can't compete at a wild-card contender level or (b) I wake up and smell the coffee. Admittedly, the lack of a stopper hurts us right now whereas they have one of the best. And if you look at the games at Safeco Field, the first two losses could've been Oriole wins if not for the failures of the bullpen. But, with the exception of the pair of losses at Fenway and the final game against the Yankees, this has been a better bullpen (especially Walker, Bradford, and Baez) and it'll be nice to see how the teams matchup if the right pen shows up. Meanwhile, Trachsel can audition again and, if he doesn't get traded, I think Burres goes to the pen in favor of Olson. That strengthens the pen and gives the right guy the chance to prove himself--he has done all he can in AAA. Lots of intrigue, both on the field and off, for this homestand. I guess the gut checks never stop.

Gut Check #1 Complete

The gut check is complete and the Orioles split their six games. Losing two of three in Fenway isn't completely unforgivable, especially with the spector of the Mother's Day Massacre haunting the team (the Sox fans call it the Mother's Day Miracle--imagine that). Beating Josh Beckett was impressive. What wasn't was the bullpen performance in the seventh inning. If this keeps up, the Orioles starters may have to push themselves to seven like they were in May or June. Given their pitch counts of late, that's not ideal. In the case of Paul Shuey, that's two straight distrubing outings and you wonder at what point you turn that responsibility over to Cory Doyne, who also had two crappy outings, but might actually be part of this team next year. As for Rob Bell, just some tough breaks. I think he's got a shot to be back in 2008, so I don't think it is horrible to use him. But this team definitely feels the pain of losing Chris Ray just as it did when Danys Baez went down. Dave Trembley has had to do a lot of shuffling and it hurts. Game 2 was definitely winnable and Game 3 should've been a tougher fight. Jeremy Guthrie wasn't getting a lot of calls on the corner, which wasn't helping hims as he struggled. Still, it was really the bullpen that failed in both games. At what point do you call up Jim Hoey again and give him a real chance (as opposed to that cup of coffee earlier this year). Meanwhile, one good development was Steve Trachsel going six innings against the Red Sox and giving up only one run. Of course, one run is exactly how many Garrett Olson has given up down in the minors in three starts since being sent down. How long do you keep him there? There shouldn't be days when I'd rather see Norfolk play than the Orioles.

Now it is on to Tampa Bay, where the D-Rays are much tougher at home than on the road. Then it is back home for the Mariners and the Red Sox. These games at Fenway were the first time since the All-Star Break that the O's have lost consecutive games. Much like we've kept asking whether Jeremy Guthrie would react well to adversity, now the question will be asked of these "new look" Orioles. They've won four of six series and need to win on the road at places like Tampa Bay to have a shot at 500 or more. Then, they can take a crack against the two teams that have beaten them in the second half series this year--but on their turf. Given the improved play the Orioles have had at home, it will be a great test on whether the Orioles can defend against a pair of playoff-caliber teams.